As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today.
I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then.
I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.
I'm not a believer in the rates are going to stay higher for longer narrative. I do think they'll be higher than where we were in 2021, but I do not think they'll stay at 5+%. I think the financial system will end up being in trouble and the only out will be to bring down rates again. I do think that'll play out sometime in the next 6 months.
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Definitely looking like a bottom is being put in. Time will tell.
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I'm out of all TLT positions now. Hit this first resistance and I don't like how bullish everyone is. TBD if we see more upside from here, I'll sit and watch from afar.