Enjoying the show... for investment class NOT for trading...
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The overheat phase looks like over now. We're waiting for a black swan situation for changing the DXY- inflation positive correlation back to normal to end the US deflation- overheat mixed market. Next year, quit all of gold at high and return to stocks, we're going to make history guys.
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Looks like A shares is falling today. In weekly chart EURUSD have negative correlation with it. Careful now the stock market isn't sustainable. The funny thing is the market is ready for higher but FRB isn't ready. They still have inflation correlation with DXY that means stocks up and inflation down and DXY will be down too. The truth is SPX500 is the most important market but not the DXY. Cheating will be found out soon. Do Not cheat ever! Because in the market everything is spotted on. That's why Clinton lost, isn't it?
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In overheat phase the second one is the confirmation of we are officially "in the mood" now. In fact, FRB is the second best friend with stocks from the capital flow in this phase. If the banks have more interests and less risk why the big capital put money into stocks? ( a hint: buy banks shares) As we all can see the year of 2017 isn't a safe one. Politics and culture revolutions in EU zone (some people fled from EU into China Lol, they think there'll be civil wars) Trump new policies and adjustments need time too ( some laws like patriot rules could be changed but they need the hills processing ).
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Now the bleeding from the bonds or bunds market is beginning. I can't publish the chart but you guys could look at it by using TV. An head shoulder PO should be reached as the same 0.618 retracement from 2011.
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"Inflation lags growth, starting to rise only once spare capacity has been used up." - M.L. Think about the core inflation when FRB stop hikes. Risks could be very high...
Merry Christmas and happy new year! We wish investors have good luck here!
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Traders should leave stock market now before it's too late. We're officially in the over heating phase.
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We've warned traders on Feb 2 "Comment: Traders should leave stock market now before it's too late. We're officially in the over heating phase." What now? It wasn't me......
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Even if we've had an second USA over heat phase in an second US dollar interests hiking cycle, doesn't mean we can't use a purchase in the US10Y bonds market, for helping the US equities growth and for pushing the core inflation synchronously.
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The GS ratio is forming an huge top on monthly chart, we don't know who is gonna move it in the forex market yet. Commodity market huge move ahead.
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The core inflation may have been released already...
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Time to re-clock again. 2013/12+20= 2013/32= 2015/8 growth 2015/8+20= 2015/28= 2017/4 overheat 2017/4+20= 2017/24= 2019/1 deflation reflation QE should've begun in China. It has rumors already, news is about PBOC should buy ETF or not, we both know that FRB purchased stocks and bonds in 2008. The USA QE but China version. Looks like we have to force them( they 're too old) to buy the market. China will make a new bank law to force them change that, right? Against the history or not, it's your choice.