Hi, Can you help me understand your thesis? Very curious.
I noticed that TLT was very tight into the end of a falling wedge, along with the ratio of TLT/JNK.
supere
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@jscottw, The yield curve already inverted multiple times between 2018 and today. Typically that is a warning of an upcoming recession. However, the actual recession usually does not strike until the yield curve normalizes and yield rates begin to skyrocket. The break in today's TLT structure could signify such an "acceleration" event. With so much leverage and debt in the system, a large jump in yield rates could be catastrophic.
supere
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@supere, It may also mean central banks have lost control. The FED has been trying to artificially suppress the short-term end of the yield curve for over a decade now.
columbus127x
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What’s the issue. The Feds gone crazy & Bidens destroying the economy. Who’d borrow at higher rates?
supere
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@columbus127x, My eyes see issues everywhere. I think I probably just need new glasses.
sparo
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@columbus127x, the fed is doing under biden what it did under trump. It's the same policy. In fact, Trump said the Fed wasn't doing it enough and that is exactly what Yellen is saying. If you're going to be an ideologue at least make se.....oh wait. Ideology has no time for sense.
I noticed that TLT was very tight into the end of a falling wedge, along with the ratio of TLT/JNK.