benjihyam

$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75

benjihyam Updated   
BATS:TLT   Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move.

However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard.

I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October.

Let's see how it plays out.
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Looking like there might be a good short setup here. I think there's the possibility of yields rising really quickly w/ how the chart is setup.

Think yields fall after the 14th.
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Bought 6/14 91P
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All eyes on ECB rate decision tomorrow. Lots of catalysts to push yields higher in the coming week. Hence why I took the puts. I think we see a move down in TLT before we see higher bond prices.

I'm thinking we could see that $84 level.
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If I had to guess, I think bond yields rise over the next week and then the Fed cuts rates next week which gives TLT relief into that June/July window.
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Update: that catalyst didn't play out. Still in the puts, don't think TLT can go much higher here. Let's see what tomorrow and next week bring.
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Welp, looks like the catalyst was NFP.
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Closed half of my position at 108% gain, riding 15 contracts into next week for free.
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Something is going on... TLT down big today, KRE broke down from 1HR H&S top. SPY up on day.

Something doesn't make sense. My guess is we'll find out what's going on in the next couple of days.
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Closed +200%, want to see if TLT bounces here, if we get a good bounce, will reenter the puts because TLT still looks like it wants lower.
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Likely a good spot to reenter put position. Still looks like it wants more downside. Maybe CPI surprises tomorrow?
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Initial reaction was positive for TLT, but price went right back into the resistance that we just broke down from last week. I'm not certain price will continue higher here.

Again, the chart looks like it still wants lower. Not sure what would bring yields higher again, but something to be on the lookout for over the next few days.
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If we continue higher at open tomorrow, likely just continue to the upper targets.
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TLT still looks like it wants lower before higher. I can see a move down into next week and then we should continue into the higher targets into late July.
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I bought some 94P today for 7/19. Still not liking the price action for sustained upside here. Let's see.

Maybe we can see higher TLT into Wed/thursday, but don't see a move continuing much past that.
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Got that price flip down. First target to the downside is 92, will see what happens there. Could potentially get that move I was expecting into the 80s, but will see what happens at that level first.

Once we bottom at either of those levels, I expect a big move higher.
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Got an important rejection on the initial positive reaction on CPI. Confidence building in larger downside move.
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Levels: $92 next. That breaks and there's one more support around $90.56. That breaks and we see $88.27.
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Broke through all supports. $88.27 next. If that breaks, then $85.91 and $83.29 after.
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Started shaving off some profits at +215%
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Still think we're heading lower here. I wouldn't be surprised if $85 gets tagged.

Key area right here w/ price above the 200DMA. If it breaks below this area of $91.93, likelihood favors a continued move lower.
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The chart is giving me somewhat of a conflicting read therefore I'm not taking a directional bet on TLT going into CPI tomorrow.

Thoughts:
On smaller timeframes (1hr, 2hr) I could see the case for price to move higher. However, on higher timeframes (4hr,5hr+) the chart still looks like it wants to correct more.

I could see a pop higher up into $93+ that gets faded. That would be my best guess as to what happens w/ the way the chart looks.

I am looking to go long TLT (for a trade), but I don't think it's time yet. Looking for a final low to be put in somewhere between $88-85. That should be the trigger to take a long.

If price is able to flip $94 as support, that will also be the other trigger to flip my bias to the long side.

Let's see what happens over the next couple of days to a week.
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Alright leaning towards a sustained move higher now. Will be looking at calls over the next month or two
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Note this does not mean I'm buying calls here. Just commenting on overall trend. I still think there's a possibility to pull back first to $91-92 area. Just ruling out the further downside to $88-85 for now.

Think price will likely follow the original path on the chart now.
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Update: I actually don't want to rule out the possibility of $88 yet. $88.50 is an interesting level to me and there's a chance we get down there before running higher.

Either way, whether it's $90-91 or $88.50, looking for a pullback still before going long.

If we do get down there, then I'll want to add $90+ calls for September.

Will update as the chart becomes more clear.

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