I think it is interesting that TLT reached the upside target implied by this methodology right at the high, but a few days later than perfect. The method isn't supposed to be perfect and I don't expect it to be, but I don't plot every market and I wont unless users ask me to.
However, it appears that the rally has reached its natural, logical end here at the highs at 113 and now there is a new trend in place, down, since we haven't made a new high in the last 5 sessions. Granted, it went Ex-Dividend, so that makes it look weaker than it actually is. One of these years, TLT will accrue dividends so you earn the dividend for every day that you hold the shares overnight. It would only be fair that way.
Tim 111.12 last 1:05PM EST Friday, May 9, 2014