Note what happens each time there is a dramatic run-up in bonds as portfolio managers liquidate stock positions.
That spike down in MMFI Index, or the % of stocks over their 50 day moving average is at least a good measure of the amount of shifting going on between asset classes.
From 121.79 last in TLT it looks like TLT can climb up to the 138 level over the time frame from now until year end.
Tim
121.79 last TLT 11:48PM EST 8/26/2015
Comments
timwest
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Raise the stop steadily over time so that you have a breakeven stop in less than a month. This is more of an investors pattern since it is longer term pattern recognition.
LEckhardt
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This time its different. Reversed QE (China selling reserves=UST) means tremendous up pressure on yields despite stock crash. I am short both ES and US/EU Bonds.
azn_trader
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Do you think China have that many treasury bonds to sell? I don't think they have that many treasury bonds that they said they do. They already invested in building empty houses, big luxury apartments that no one can't afford and other investments that we don't know. That is what you don't trust the communist. They say one thing, they do the other.
azn_trader
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I like your chart. I agree with you too that TLT is the best place to be until China Crisis over which is a long time. The china crisis is just beginning and the second largest economy is coming down hard. It's not just like a V shape as everyone thought on all indexes. There are more bounces til the bottom is formed. Everyone remember the story of gold at 2011?
timwest
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Exactly.
IvanLabrie
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Excellent level for a long it seems. Also makes perfect sense.