I think the way the markets are all linked and pull and push on one another is really fascinating, however, in most of the books I've read it says that you should stay away from that type of predictive trading and just do what the market is showing you on the charts. I think trying to piece everything together is fun, but again, I've read so many accounts of traders who place positions because they think they know what the market is going to do, then the news comes out exactly as they predicted and the market accommodates by twisting and bending in a way they were not expecting. For this reason, I like to keep it simple. This is probably why I'm only joining trends midway through, but I'm not placing life changing positions.
Still, I think it's all very interesting, and today I learned a little bit about the correlation between bonds, inflation, and rates expectations.
Inflation up = interest rates up. Interest rates up = bonds down. Bonds down = stocks up. Stocks up = gold down? gold down = what? and where does bitcoin fit into this? How much does a sailboat cost?
Thanks for taking a look at this (you have a great way of analyzing charts), and I completely agree. I do think there's something to be said about combining the two approaches, where you have a prediction based off of the macro/micro environment, and then consult the charts to wait for confirmation of said prediction. Plus, like you mentioned, it's a fun thing to try to pair the two methods together, even if it's just a thought experiment. Anyways, I will definitely look to check against that more pronounced trend-line you pointed out, to see if anything comes of it! Could be a good 20% return in the case of confirmation.