Gut check - Risk OFF Ratio Spiking
So, it is that old adage, that it is darkest before dawn, but it is also darkest before it is "pitch black". Meaning to talk on both sides of the fence here because this is the kind of setup where we could accelerate down and if we do, I don't see what is going to stop us at this point.
Investors are moving OUT of HYG (High Yield Bonds) and INTO the safe haven of US Gov't Bonds ( TLT - 20 Years Gov't Bonds). This "RISK OFF" ratio is easy to plot and easy to track. I don't know the absolute levels that triggers a specific buy signal, but we are at TERROR levels NOT SEEN SINCE 2009 in the midst of financial market collapse - banks collapsing, brokers and leveraged traders getting wiped out (Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG , etc).
So, tell me what you think? Are you in enough cash to "sleep at night" or are you still holding "margin long".
1102 SPX500 3:05PM EST Friday, Feb 5, 2016
I only see gold and TLT (as you said) in an up trend.
Love the ideas. Keep em coming. :)