For TLT, I just wanted to share my own ideas, which are not investment advice, about the interaction of recent geopolitical events and expectations, as a note to history.
In the pre-trading hours, I expect 88.3 with the opening and maybe 86.9 with reaction sales. Since I foresee a movement around 1.045 in terms of Euro / Dollar parity, I suspect that there will be a serious withdrawal with possible reaction sales. In the meantime, I will make a loss as I am in a long position.
goodjob on predicting, is it a time to go long? thinking to add june/july ITM calls
Berdem79
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@LetsBeMillionaire, I can't say that I am very successful on the options side, but 4.7 and maybe 4.8 may come for US10Y. 5 might be waiting for us at the top. The latest Iran-Israel situation and the US elections are already complicating things. On the other hand, the FED will not cut interest rates by 80% this year. The euro/dollar parity can go low to 1.045 or lower, if the EU signals an interest rate cut earlier, 2024 will be known as parity wars. I recommend TMF as it is 3x bullish to buy from the bottom. But for the possibility of US10Y rising, TMV 3x bearish could be a good get in and out alternative. I'm sorry I made it long, but in short, I plan to buy TMF during trading hours in late trading and TMV minimize the loss before the market opening. Best regards
Bravetotrade
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Congratulations and well done for sharing your first idea with the community. Hope you will be having great experience. Thanks for your contribution. From mod @Bravetotrade