jangseohee

It's your choice, Bond vs SPY

TLT/SPY  
TLT/SPY  
1468 0 5
Let's go back to June 2007. What do you see? Yes, the credit bubble that exploded scare the hell out of investors and they parked their money in 20-years Treasury Note.
After QE 1 was launched at Dec 2008, this ratio run into a downtrend channel as "risk-appetite" was coming back due to free money from the sky.

Since Jan 2014, this ratio has hit the same bottom ratio AGAIN and consolidating into a symmetrical triangle pattern . Now, the existence of that long tail candle which i would consider it as very early bullish indication of what is coming, instead of a shooting star .

Technically, the price will either break out downside or upside around 2/3 of the triangle.

Anticipate the following scenarios:
1. Either the ratio will test triangle bottom or even false break down, which will give a RSI bullish divergence for uptrend

2. Or price would just flow nicely with the 8ema to challenge the channel top.

Note: RSI has broke out of long term downtrend resistance line

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