timwest
Short

TLT - Daily Bearish Divergence Sell Signal

AMEX:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND E
635 25 16
Thanks to @JR for pointing out TLT             as a potential top. I'll do some "Time at Mode" analysis next to see if that adds to the downside potential.

Here is a shorter term trade setup using an 11-day CCI divergence of at least 20 points with a confirmation of a close under the highest range.

Target holding period is 11-days OR a break above the 3-day range.

Notice how the signals are at least profitable or trade in the direction of the setup.

A new signal is setting up today.

Tim 1:24PM
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
tompower
2 years ago
Tim, you are not the only one looking at this, I see a few other folks that are seeing resistance here, but what I fear is this will increase yields, and everybody will be chasing the US dollar, which means decreasing value for my Canadian dollar. Will probably see 60 cents to your dollar by the end of the year.
+3 Reply
Nice trade setup!
Reply
Nice ! ...and the yellow range and orange range are clones of prior price action. Cool.
Reply
snapshot


Price is contending with the 2.0 deviation.
+2 Reply
Not so sure this is the top. Thinking more of the lines of a topping process for more than a month.

We now know when Central Banks don't act quickly in putting out fires they render themselves useless in future flash fires. US Federal Reserve acted quickly and bodily.

snapshot

This chart suggest the Fed is ready to start selling. Which will drive up interest rates and drop TLT.
+3 Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
hey JR... that is nice, so when the Fed Fund drops, stock market will follow?
i can't find this: BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread
Would you able to dig it out from TV and do a comparison with SPX at least from 1998, the spread is making higher high stealthily :-)

Cheers
Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
snapshot
+2 Reply
snapshot


Two targets for price retracement.
+3 Reply
snapshot


Support and Resistance forks
+2 Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
Hi Tim,

with your chart as my confirmation, i am pretty relief that my analysis is on my way to improvement :-)
this is my zoom in view on daily chart... setting is base on monthly
we still have some puff left perhaps

snapshot
+2 Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
monthly view.
+ve direction is meeting a lower resistance, there is another higher resistance
-ve direction is meeting major support
MACD is showing a "Potential bearish divergence"

snapshot
+2 Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
meanwhile...
waiting for extreme in TYX and TNX for long calls
What
+2 Reply
snapshot


Here you get Dollar, SPY, 10 Year Yields, Fed Balance
+2 Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
So..
when fed fund drops.. DXY drops, SPX drops and TNX shoots up :-)
Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Not exactly
Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
another co-relation i am monitoring..
however, it would have been really nice if i can see whether the same is happening in the dotcom bubble in 1999/2000
this is the fundamental that my "poor & dump money" dad couldnt answer me.. he only look at annual reports
What would happen when XLY/XLP low is taken out?
+2 Reply
jangseohee jangseohee
2 years ago
by 31 Jan, i will update this chart again
+1 Reply
Comment removed
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
gold bring out the best of oil or oil bring out the worst of gold?
GC1! & CL1!, Another intricate relationship
Reply
timwest PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Did you see the XAUUSD/CL1! ratio chart that I posted several times? The lead-lag relationship you have here is always challenging to see in real time. How much risk do you take on each setup and how long do you hold the position are the over-riding issues. Copper and Crude go together very well too, in case you want to look at some charts there too. Thanks jangseohee.
+4 Reply
jangseohee timwest
2 years ago
yup Tim, ratio is a better measure :-)
Reply
timwest PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
In 2006 the XLY/XLP had a major breakdown with no impact on SPX. It later broke in 2007 as you noted and then it broke. Markets can always mess with us just enough to make forecasting and trading difficult. If this were easy, everyone would be doing it. Thanks for the post jangseohee.
+3 Reply
jangseohee timwest
2 years ago
True..:-)
Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
However, that may be the case this time around.
+1 Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Thanks for that a lot
+2 Reply
JatinDhawan
2 years ago
Is it time to buy puts now?
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out