Thanks to @jr for pointing out TLT as a potential top. I'll do some "Time at Mode" analysis next to see if that adds to the downside potential.
Here is a shorter term trade setup using an 11-day CCI divergence of at least 20 points with a confirmation of a close under the highest range.
Target holding period is 11-days OR a break above the 3-day range.
Notice how the signals are at least profitable or trade in the direction of the setup.
A new signal is setting up today.
Tim 1:24PM
Comments
cooney_s
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Two targets for price retracement.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Not so sure this is the top. Thinking more of the lines of a topping process for more than a month.
We now know when Central Banks don't act quickly in putting out fires they render themselves useless in future flash fires. US Federal Reserve acted quickly and bodily.
This chart suggest the Fed is ready to start selling. Which will drive up interest rates and drop TLT.
jangseohee
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hey JR... that is nice, so when the Fed Fund drops, stock market will follow?
i can't find this: BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread
Would you able to dig it out from TV and do a comparison with SPX at least from 1998, the spread is making higher high stealthily :-)
Cheers
QuantitativeExhaustion
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tompower2
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Tim, you are not the only one looking at this, I see a few other folks that are seeing resistance here, but what I fear is this will increase yields, and everybody will be chasing the US dollar, which means decreasing value for my Canadian dollar. Will probably see 60 cents to your dollar by the end of the year.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Here you get Dollar, SPY, 10 Year Yields, Fed Balance
jangseohee
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So..
when fed fund drops.. DXY drops, SPX drops and TNX shoots up :-)
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Not exactly
jangseohee
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another co-relation i am monitoring..
however, it would have been really nice if i can see whether the same is happening in the dotcom bubble in 1999/2000
this is the fundamental that my "poor & dump money" dad couldnt answer me.. he only look at annual reports
tradingview.com/v/mU99fYxB/
Two targets for price retracement.