Comments: Laddering out at intervals at strikes between 85 and 82, assuming they're paying.
This is naturally longer-dated than most will want to go, but is part of a TLT position made up of covered calls (stock + short call) and short puts, so that I'm getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) dividends; and (c) short put premium over time.
Alternatively, it's a "hmm, I really need to get more BP deployed here because I don't really have shit on at the moment" sort of thing ... .
You do realize that a T bond ETF with an average duration of 17.6 will increase 17.6% for each 1% decrease in the Fed funds rate? So if we have only 2 rate cuts this year, it will still end up well over 100. TLT follows no other analysis technique, it follows only interest rates and anything that might impact interest rates (CPI, PCE, unemployment, jobs creation, etc.). 82-85 is where I bought in late October, but the only way we see those numbers again is if the Fed hikes interest rates, or very remotely possible, that there are no rate cuts this year, and everyone dumps their shares
NaughtyPines
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@racerdoc, Perhaps the confusion is that it is a short put, not a long one, so I make money if TLT finishes anywhere above the short put strike (84) minus the credit received (.98) or 83.02. If I had had a bearish assumption, I would have done something else (short call vertical, long put vertical, long put diagonal).
NaughtyPines
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@NaughtyPines, Does no one sell premium around here? This is like the fifth time I've had to tell people that it is a short put, not a long one, and that a short put is a neutral to bullish assumption setup.