Revisiting a call I made back in September that TLT was in a zig-zag correction down to $113 and got plenty of "expert" advice from @jscheurichiv, of how its "completely obvious" and the chart "no longer matters"
One thing seems to be common in all markets - there are plenty of "experts" that can't read a chart.
Thanks for your post. Could you explain where you get $113? Is that a fib retracement or EW wave? All the charts I'm looking at suggest that TLT is already near its bottom. The monthly RSI is the lowest its ever been, price is near the ten-year trend line, price is holding at the bottom of the monthly EMA ribbons, price is holding within the monthly ichimoku cloud support zone, price is holding at weekly and monthly fib levels, and the monthly CCI is indicating a very oversold price. It's rare to see all of so many buy signals confirming each other for an asset. Based on what I am seeing, if TLT were truly to get down to $113 that would reflect a break down in the trend that has held for 20 years, through both the Great Recession and the COVID sell off. When logarithmically adjusted on the monthly chart, TLT is sitting right on the straight trend line that has supported every bottom since 2002. I can see price dropping to perhaps the upper 120s based on fib levels, but nothing I'm seeing suggests the price could fall to $113. Who knows what could happen in the future, but I've learned to never bet against the long term trend! (Note: My charting for TLT is of course adjusted for dividends)
dRends35
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@spy_master, Sure - its exactly as you said; the end of a 20 year trend and that is reflected in your plethora of "relative" strength tools that cannot recognise higher time frame reversals. But its simple EW with basic fibs; just an ABC zig-zag to hit an equidistant 1:1 target - nothing fancy.