TLT - A long-term outlook

If price is moving up, we look for support structure, which in this case is a Real Swing Low (RSL).

An RSL is confirmed when the most recent Real Swing High (RSH) is broken.

What we’re seeing here is the beginning of a stair-step move to the upside, including short-term support.

Even the CIB has been broken, which suggests that a shift in market behavior is underway.

Our statistical probability of hitting the centerline is roughly 80%. That implies we can look for a longer-term play in TLT.

However, keep a close eye on the 1/4 line. It isn’t exactly friendly, as the rejections we’ve seen so far make clear.

I probably go with ITM LEAP options with a
Delta of around 70–80 and a over 120 DTE.

Happy profits, and for those in the U.S., wishing you a happy Thanksgiving.