Small bounces have been shortable since May. So this time will be different??
I agree. As much as I'd like to buy some TLT (I think rates are going lower in the short-intermediate term), TLT doesn't seem to be quite finished reaching a bottom. Note that the TNX touched a 6 year (6-13-07) trend line on 7-08; it will probably retest. I expect the SPX to turn down next week for a 2-3 week leg. Maybe the TLT reversal will coincide with the upturn in late July / early August.