MaxxPayme

Peak of negative sentiment for bonds or just the beginning?

AMEX:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND E
186 29 2
Seems like a good fade trade here, but what do I know? I am just a bearish contrary monkey.
I could see this sucker dropping out to around $90 - $95 implies yields around 3.4%.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
if that happens you better be out of equities
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DuncanParker PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
Scratch that, 4.5% I meant. Talking 30's thinking 10s...
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DuncanParker PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
Even crazier, I think we could be well on our way there starting now into early September.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
if the fed does not keep borrowing rates in check the politicians will make life very uncomfortable for the Fed - one hand washes the other. Never forget the game as it is truly played. Pol's need the fed so they can deficit spend to get re-elected - fed needs pols to stay in the cartel game.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
too high imo...far too much of the govt revenue as % of GDP would be going towards debt service. With current slow growth the market multiple would get slashed down and thus tank city. Combine with high gas / crude and a real molotov cocktail. Fed would rather let equities go and get the safe haven flight to Tresuries so they can dump some at higher prices. Remember the buyer of treasuries right now is the fed and no way they go down with the ship ever
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DuncanParker PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
What do you think about this? Sorry, posted to Minyanville today but not on TV by accident.
snapshot
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
no offense but everyone sees that chart every day when they look at the bond daily - that is the chart they want u to see not this one
snapshot
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MaxxPayme PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
i think the 101.43 is possible additional downside but not below and not for more than a quick spike and reversal
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DuncanParker PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
None taken, very well could be some sort of massive bull flag forming. 61.8 should at least provide a bounce, but if not the 76.4 retracement is right in the sweet spot of where I was projecting -- which I realize would be rare unless yields are about to go ape above 5% (which I don't see happening anytime soon). Good call out though, I saw a little support in that area but didn't realize the Fib was there (lazy LOL). I might've over-thought the setup by including bias from the previous chart projection. Happens!
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
plus the media is pumping muppets into equities at the top - the only place there is any money left is from bond funds
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MaxxPayme PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
i don't listen to msm so i don't hear the drumbeat but I see the twitter and st streams get bearish all of a sudden and I know the msm is doing the panic talk
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DuncanParker PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
I guess 3.9% is a logical guess if we're considering 3.2% as the Cup & Handle, but the breakout above 2012 highs suggests the iH&S target near next resistance, imo.
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DuncanParker PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
I disagree in that I don't believe bonds necessarily have to go higher this time -- not until the panic truly arrives, anyway. I see the potential scenario becoming no where to hide but the US dollar.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
interesting you say that since my largest long position is in that exact trade (although I do own bonds in some 401's. In essence my stance is that if yields spike then short equities is the play (on that already) and as you state long dollar is my hedge on the long bond. BUT if bonds and dollar rally and equities fall I will all bets.
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DuncanParker PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
Bonds and dollar won't likely rally together - at least not for very long, imo. That would be a special situation - and a very interesting one at that.
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MaxxPayme PRO
3 years ago
cachinga baby lol - we'll see
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we might actually be basing at the current levels 104/105
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MaxxPayme PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
i personally agree JR - but we are below the fib so we could flush and reverse intraday as an alternate scenario and it would not change my view
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MaxxPayme PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
below 101.43 and I would be concerned
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
Here is Fib Queens' look.. very close
http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/
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DuncanParker PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
I've heard a few really smart guys whom I trust echo this sentiment today. Regardless, I'd like to see a bounce to a slightly higher high above 107.75 followed by a higher low before I begin incorporating the basing hypothesis as a possible outcome. Idk, very confusing right now if watching any more often than on the daily chart, at least for me.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
not an easy trade and one you should stay out of if you do not have macro conviction because the fog of war is very thick at the moment.
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DuncanParker PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
Agreed, I'm not in it. Just trying to find my way like the rest of us. Lot's of people have macro conviction here, they're called "liars."
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
actually I feel good about my pov - it works for me and it helps me to navigate on a bigger picture. I am essentially using common sense to decipher the most obvious and likely result over the long pull. Not a trade rec obviously - dyodd
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DuncanParker PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
Yeah but pov is much different than conviction. Point-of-view is inherently more objective. It was a joke in case anyone out there takes that comment in a way other than I intended.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
the fact that i feel good about it IS my conviction. Not telling you to have the same pov OR conviction - of course. Most are playing this trade 100% opposite so it would not be any great shakes to my ego. But I enjoyed the back and forth.
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DuncanParker PRO MaxxPayme
3 years ago
Can't play this trade any more opposite than me -- sidelines! Too many ways it can go for me right here. A straddle might be a good call. I've worked out a pretty solid if/then thesis to respond to coming action. Expecting the market to change course has not been a very rewarding thesis so far this year for me. I've got long and short exposure to the market with a short bias. Once the story speeds up I'll be ready to jump into action. (and by the way, we both know the opposite side is usually the right side ;)...).
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DuncanParker PRO DuncanParker
3 years ago
meaning your kind of opposite, not my lol.
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