MaxxPayme

Peak of negative sentiment for bonds or just the beginning?

AMEX:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND E
188 29 2
Seems like a good fade trade here, but what do I know? I am just a bearish contrary monkey.
we might actually be basing at the current levels 104/105
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MaxxPayme PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
i personally agree JR - but we are below the fib so we could flush and reverse intraday as an alternate scenario and it would not change my view
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MaxxPayme PRO MaxxPayme
below 101.43 and I would be concerned
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Here is Fib Queens' look.. very close
http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/
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DuncanParker PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
I've heard a few really smart guys whom I trust echo this sentiment today. Regardless, I'd like to see a bounce to a slightly higher high above 107.75 followed by a higher low before I begin incorporating the basing hypothesis as a possible outcome. Idk, very confusing right now if watching any more often than on the daily chart, at least for me.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
not an easy trade and one you should stay out of if you do not have macro conviction because the fog of war is very thick at the moment.
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Agreed, I'm not in it. Just trying to find my way like the rest of us. Lot's of people have macro conviction here, they're called "liars."
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
actually I feel good about my pov - it works for me and it helps me to navigate on a bigger picture. I am essentially using common sense to decipher the most obvious and likely result over the long pull. Not a trade rec obviously - dyodd
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Yeah but pov is much different than conviction. Point-of-view is inherently more objective. It was a joke in case anyone out there takes that comment in a way other than I intended.
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MaxxPayme PRO DuncanParker
the fact that i feel good about it IS my conviction. Not telling you to have the same pov OR conviction - of course. Most are playing this trade 100% opposite so it would not be any great shakes to my ego. But I enjoyed the back and forth.
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