the behaviour of tlt against spx during august and september is totally anticorrelated, is that normal ? are tlt and stock supposed to evolve in same direction or systematically in opposed way ?
gerFX
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what is your updated view, as it doesn't seem good at all on spx, usdcad in particular and others too.
@AndyM, the shares buyback activity makes it totally impossible for the SPX to go down. nothing can change that unless a change in regulation, it could take years before the law about it evolves
gerFX
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looks like unfortunately that the sell off in bond works in reverse with stocks. today's downside impulse in bonds was parallel with a strong recovery of stocks. we will never see the SP500 go down in theses conditions :'(
gerFX
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what happened to the japanese bond right now is just crazy ! could it be you were the only one here to guess perfectly on everything !?
gerFX
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is it technically possible to have a sell off on stocks and not on bonds even the opposite a rally of bonds !?
gerFX
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what would be the hidden reason of all this mess, why suddenly a bond sell off, is there a geopolitical or purely economical reason behind all of this ?
gerFX
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what would be the theoretical impact on TLT of russia and turkey (and maybe others after ...) getting rid of their US treasuries ?because it is taking place for real, do we see it on this curve ?
gerFX
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people buy bonds when future growth propsects are bad as this is the last thing one which they can put their money. right now with trade war turmoil, turkey crisis etc ... future groth looks bad BUT you imply people will sell off bonds. it is counterintuitive. could you explain why in an evironment with bad future growth prospects people would suddenly sell off bonds ?