TLT has appears to have completed a long term Ending Diagonal spanning almost 10 years. The first signs of breakdown appeared in 07/2017 when the 20 year bonds sold off to a near 2 year low at $116.49. The recovery since then was tepid and choppy.
Prices have appeared to completed a W-X-Y consolidation at lower time frames and appear ready to continue its larger trend downwards.
We do not rule out a more complex pattern in progress resulting in one more high before resuming its larger trend. However, the near term sell down analysis remains the operative one.
A decisive break down of its recent low in $116.49 will bring utmost confidence that the down trend is in full flow.
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Bearish candles with strong volume than average is ominous for bonds. Watch for more downward momentum breaking multiple layers of support for strong evidence of bond sell-off.
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A Head And Shoulders formation. Watch for a strong break of the shoulder as a trigger.
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Prices broke and close below shoulder level in above average volume. Projection of minimum price target measured from shoulder. Any retracement should find resistance in around the shoulder level.
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Yields have moved up steadily and its bringing prices in opposite direction. Downside momentum should pick up once its breaks and closes below Minute Wave i. (Weekly) (2D)