NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92.
Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts.
After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish bonds after the $98 resistance gets tagged.
I also think we'll see new lows (I know this is very opposite of what most people think will play out). This is also likely the catalyst that brings down the stock market (rates rise more than people think is possible).
Let's see how it plays out.
Comment
⋅
I expect bonds to rally through the end of the month. Could potentially get all the way up to $100. I'm long via options. Once we get into the $98-100 region, I'll flip short.
Comment
⋅
As long as this double bottom holds, idea still valid.
Comment
⋅
Think we're starting to form a short term bottom and will see the move to the upside start soon.
Still thinking we're going to hit $98 before much larger downside. Got the original timing of the move wrong, but think it'll still play out between now and end of May.
TLT is at the mercy of the FED. Every economic indicator (CPI, PCE, unemployment, jobs creation, etc.) is assessed to see if it fits the narrative of 3 rate cuts this year. After that, it's all math. Since it's a bond ETF, not a stock ETF, with an average duration of 17.6, every 1% decrease in interest rates equals a 17.6% increase in TLT price. TLT doesn't follow certain technical analysis techniques such as Elliott Wave/Fibonacci, so it's impossible to predict movement using those. If PCE comes out ok this Friday, TLT will continue it's climb. If PCE is up by a fraction, TLT price drops. That's it. Just follow the FED.
benjihyam
⋅
@racerdoc, lol ok says someone who doesn't understand how to read a chart. It was definitely wrong here:
@benjihyam and I got 100k saying that your wrong in Tlt lol 😂
benjihyam
⋅
@jeffwporter8, Saying that I'm wrong in what exactly? You think price goes up long term?
Invisibie
⋅
What is double bottom here?
benjihyam
⋅
@Invisibie, It already broke it. Was looking at the 90.2 level. That said, I do think we've found a short term bottom and I think we see a pretty substantial rally before bonds fall further. Let's see if we can get all the way back above the sell level.