Symbol TLT Open Date 11/8/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 95 Long Strike 97 Price to Open 0.24 Min Width Multiple 4 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 44 1 Day ROI% 0.31% Max Annual ROI % 113.1%
TLT sold yesterday early afternoon as it tested +1 sig on the Bearish 4h/Daily range. Perfect textbook setup and entry execution for me. I liked the flip of the price algo at VWAP and thought the relvance was good. I chose the 95 strike back at +3 sig. I always go with the highest relevance model because then I know what to do at different levels.
I'm only 50% on picking exact tops and bottoms at model levels, but I am 110% on predetermining and executing a plan at modeled levels.
Comment
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TLT came back below the strike and the spiked up and back down on the Fed rate stability announcement. Since it removed so much liquidity back up to the strike and back down to VWAP I didn't want to risk it going even higher on the Core inflation next Tues 2/13. I closed this on 2/7, 2 days ago manually for 0.22.
So I sold for 0.27 and had to roll it out, but not up for a net 0.50. But only kept 0.24 of the 0.50. And then on 2/8, I tortured myself and looked at the spread and it traded down to 0.08. So I left quite a bit on the table. But I did't want this thing going up with 2 weeks go to, so I'll take my delta gains and be happy. Plus I've been doing 0DTE spreads in SPX so I wanted more buy power back in the account. I'd publish those trades, but Tview tells me it's too short a timeframe. Maybe I'll find some way because it's a log for me also.
## Buy to close manually TLT
Symbol TLT Open Date 1/2/2024 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 2/16/2024 Short Strike 97 Long Strike 100 Price to Open 0.50 Min Width Multiple 6 Risk Ratio 5.00 Return on Risk 20.0% Opening DTE 45 1 Day ROI% 0.44% Max Annual ROI % 162.2% Buyback to Close Open to Roll Closing % Cost on Opening Credit Net Roll % on Opening Credit Closing Date 2/7/2024 Closing Price 0.22 Closed Margin ROI % 11.20% Closed Annual ROI % 90.84%
TLT, along with my SPY calls all went max loss after 1 roll up. So this one I rolled out, but not up. It's an inverted roll, but like SPY the market has gone up so fast so hard since Halloween 2023 that it has skipped over many buy orders and I believe the phenomenon will be that it needs to canibalize its order book lower / go down to fulfill it's purpose as an executing market. This is the 2nd management of this original position so I'm ok with going inverted because I'm playing the odds on statistical deviation.
#### Buy back to close for loss
Symbol TLT Open Date 12/5/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 1/19/2024 Short Strike 97 Long Strike 99 Price to Open 0.15 Min Width Multiple 4 Risk Ratio 12.33 Return on Risk 8.1% Opening DTE 45 1 Day ROI% 0.18% Max Annual ROI % 65.8% Buyback to Close 1.17 Open to Roll 1.52 Closing % Cost on Opening Credit -87.18% Net Roll % on Opening Credit 333.33% Closing Date 1/2/2024 Closing Price 1.17 Closed Margin ROI % -55.14% Closed Annual ROI % -447.21%
#### Resell to open for more credit, Roll is out, not upSymbol TLT Open Date 1/2/2024 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 2/16/2024 Short Strike 97 Long Strike 100 Price to Open 0.50 Min Width Multiple 6 Risk Ratio 5.00 Return on Risk 20.0% Opening DTE 45 1 Day ROI% 0.44% Max Annual ROI % 162.2% Buyback to Close Open to Roll Closing % Cost on Opening Credit Net Roll % on Opening Credit Closing Date Closing Price Closed Margin ROI % Closed Annual ROI %
claypuzzle
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Had to manage out TLT, It had some residual selling at +1 sig Daily decline model, but the buying algo is just pushing prices higher in a channel for the past F*n month. Like the SPY. The Fed just announced yesterday morning they will be turning Dovish. Which is why the hard gap up this morning I guess. But that relentless channel grind higher for the past 3 weeks is F*n ridiculous. It's like every Bank and Fund ***KNEW*** the Fed is going to pivot and they've been going all in on Treasuries. How the F*** do they get the info if it's not Insider Trading?
Price has gapped way up to near +2 sig this morning at the Open where my short strike is And I'm pushing up on my 21 day management limit. So I gotta take care of business. This sucks, I've rolled out 1/3 the positions I sold in mid Nov because of this Xmas rally.
I was able to use the mid morning pullback to exit the 95 strike right before it rallied up again hard in the late morning before lunch. I sold the 97 strike near the highs as it had reached +2 sig on an extension. Had offer out for .56 but never made it to mid. Highest I saw was .54. Dropped order to .53 and .52 and no fill. Finally just said F** it and it filled at limit .51. Goddamn this broker SUUUUUXXXXXXXX.
##### Buy to close Symbol TLT Open Date 11/8/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 12/22/2023 Short Strike 95 Long Strike 97 Price to Open 0.24 Min Width Multiple 4 Risk Ratio 7.33 Return on Risk 13.6% Opening DTE 44 1 Day ROI% 0.31% Max Annual ROI % 113.1% Buyback to Close 0.60 Open to Roll 0.51 Closing % Cost on Opening Credit 60.00% Net Roll % on Opening Credit 62.50% Closing Date 12/5/2023 Closing Price 0.60 Closed Margin ROI % -20.45% Closed Annual ROI % -169.68%
#### Sell to Open/Roll Up and Out Symbol TLT Open Date 12/5/2023 Put or Call Call Expiry Date 1/19/2024 Short Strike 97 Long Strike 99 Price to Open 0.51 Min Width Multiple 4 Risk Ratio 2.92 Return on Risk 34.2% Opening DTE 45 1 Day ROI% 0.76% Max Annual ROI % 277.6% Buyback to Close Open to Roll Closing % Cost on Opening Credit Net Roll % on Opening Credit Closing Date Closing Price Closed Margin ROI % Closed Annual ROI % 0.00%
claypuzzle
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And the rally continues. So slow grind on TLT up along with the rocket ship SPY, and the IWM yesterday blasting off. I'm gonna look to rolling this one up and out also for a credit. That makes 2 on the SPY rolled so far and looking to roll the TLT and EWZ. But EWZ looks weak so maybe it hangs in there for an expiration
So this one I rolled out, but not up.
It's an inverted roll, but like SPY the market has gone up so fast so hard since Halloween 2023 that it has skipped over many buy orders and I believe the phenomenon will be that it needs to canibalize its order book lower / go down to fulfill it's purpose as an executing market.
This is the 2nd management of this original position so I'm ok with going inverted because I'm playing the odds on statistical deviation.
#### Buy back to close for loss
Symbol TLT
Open Date 12/5/2023
Put or Call Call
Expiry Date 1/19/2024
Short Strike 97
Long Strike 99
Price to Open 0.15
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 12.33
Return on Risk 8.1%
Opening DTE 45
1 Day ROI% 0.18%
Max Annual ROI % 65.8%
Buyback to Close 1.17
Open to Roll 1.52
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit -87.18%
Net Roll % on Opening Credit 333.33%
Closing Date 1/2/2024
Closing Price 1.17
Closed Margin ROI % -55.14%
Closed Annual ROI % -447.21%
#### Resell to open for more credit, Roll is out, not upSymbol TLT
Open Date 1/2/2024
Put or Call Call
Expiry Date 2/16/2024
Short Strike 97
Long Strike 100
Price to Open 0.50
Min Width Multiple 6
Risk Ratio 5.00
Return on Risk 20.0%
Opening DTE 45
1 Day ROI% 0.44%
Max Annual ROI % 162.2%
Buyback to Close
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date
Closing Price
Closed Margin ROI %
Closed Annual ROI %