IvanLabrie

TLT: Long, but big short coming next

AMEX:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND E
a year ago
The time at mode trend signal on chart points to a corrective advance of 5 weeks.
There are 4 weeks left in this trend signal, and the target isn't too ambitious, but it's possible that TLT             overshoots it and retests the runaway gap level above, which lines up with an impulse's wave 3 of 3 (and a range expansion bar's 50-75% retracement zone).

Ultimately the trend will resume its direction, which is down. At least that's what I think based on the post pattern reaction after forming what looked like a terminal wedge. The move up materialized, but it's not an impulse, instead it's weaving a contracting triangle of some kind, which points to a cooldown before the next big move down happens.

This rally will correlate positively with S&P500             , as both find their tops in 4 weeks.
There's a significant paradigm shift coming, where will the investors searching for yields go when nothing is certain?
Just something to meditate about...Meanwhile, let's trade the facts, and react.

Regards,
Ivan.
a year ago
Trade closed: target reached
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I'd pass on the long at this point, but it seems to be working.
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If long, place stops at 120.70.
You could aggressively long here with that same stop too, but it's dangerous. Maybe a small position size.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Aggresive long paid off if you took it.
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Don't you think that this breakout will lead to a massive rally?
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IvanLabrie PRO themarketzone
a year ago
Yes, it's possible, but ultimately, the trend will resume down.

snapshot
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The trayectory is exactly as expected, It has pending upside still.
If long, trail the stop loss to protect profits, I reccomend 122.73.
During next week you can continue to move it up. (this is for the aggressive long entry I suggested here)

"IvanLabrie TOP 2 days ago
If long, place stops at 120.70.
You could aggressively long here with that same stop too, but it's dangerous. Maybe a small position size."

snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Two options right now:
-Book profits
-Keep the trade open and keep trailing it tomorrow using today's low.
I reccomend the second one.
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Such a choppy but steady advance!
We can let it sit, it will probably hit the time at mode target.
After today's close we'll know how to proceed.
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timwest PRO
a year ago
Looks solid - tracing out exactly as you have labeled. Good work.
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IvanLabrie PRO timwest
a year ago
Sometimes I get it right.
Thanks!
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Aaaaand I'd like to say target reached, but it's only the time at mode target.
Might continue higher.
Let's close 75% here and move stop to today's low.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
(not the previous close, but the current low above the gap)
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
snapshot
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AristotelCostel IvanLabrie
a year ago
It is almost impossible for me to depict anything in these black-grey charts. :D Could you try at least a light grey background, pls. :)
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IvanLabrie PRO AristotelCostel
a year ago
How? Some bars are colored black, need this color to see.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
You can close the full position, it's possible that the stock market rebounds and investors get out of part of their bond positions.
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OptionBase
a year ago
Hi Ivan, How do you think, is it time for short TLT yet?
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IvanLabrie PRO OptionBase
a year ago
Yes, it's time to short it.
Time at mode target reached ahead of time and sharp reaction.
The trailing stop would have gotten activated as per my reccomendation.
You can stop and reverse or just go short. Invalidation would be new high, you can use a 1 atr stop above the last high, or just go for the highest high.
Problem is the entry, the ideal entry would have been when reaching the target and moving under the highest low.
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OptionBase IvanLabrie
a year ago
thank you, have a nice trade!
+1 Reply
Time to reshort TLT.
Stop above the highest high.
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Short tlt under the last low.
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This was absolutely fantastic!
Hope some of you took the trade.
Update:

snapshot
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Nice euphoria and free fall now...
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timwest PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I exited just prior to the spike up on Monday, but still had a position on with this pattern in mind. Well done Ivan!!!
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timwest PRO
a year ago
Boom! Bullseye!!
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ChimbOt PRO
a year ago
Amazing brother !!, this guy is high quality!!!
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IvanLabrie PRO ChimbOt
a year ago
Hahaha!
I just need a bot that takes my trades, and isn't me because I tend to exit too early, despite forecastin correctly.
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ChimbOt PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
scared money don't make money
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO ChimbOt
a year ago
Writing that down heh.
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Boom
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