Wave 5 is inevitable, only its time of flight is unknown. In a well-structured trend (and we have a perfect trend here), the time spent between points 3 and 5 is loosely related to the duration of 1-3.
I have seen waves 5 hit top/bottom at 0.5..0.786 of this ratio. It's never a precise fib number, but 3-5 does tend to be faster than 1-3. Based on these observations, here we have out timing estimates for w5 completion:
0.382 - June 6 (too fast.. 0.382 ratios are rare, but still possible) 0.5 - August 15 0.618 - October 23 0.786 - January 31, 2024
So, realistically, we are going to see Treasuries bottom out in September-October. By that time the market will achieve the "impossible four": - 10Y paper will hit >10% - SPX at 1500 - EURUSD at 0.75 - USDJPY at 100
@AndyM, There is too much to describe for this little comment window. But, before yield are goin above 10%, there will definetly be a restructuring of debt. TLT dropping to 30 would only be possible if there is a massive loss of life (over 25%) in the US. But this scenario is very hard to analyze.
@AndyM, nice. But this has somewhat nothing to do with your stupid analysis (only based on squiggly lines). You think, that yields on the long end will go to 30%. And I say, before this happens, there is definitly a restructuring of debt and repayment of all countries together. It´s like the TARGET 2 in Europe. This won´t be payed. It will definitly get restructured in the future. I like hayek´s thinking and his books, but I also like the books from keynes, smith and, for sure, the best old analysis on capitalism, marx.
wavetimer
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wave e ended
AndyM
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@wavetimer, yes, very likely so. Interesting that w5 after a triangular w4 always takes less time to trace than wave 4. I have seen ratios up to 20:1 (w5 being 20 times faster than w4), but ~2:1 time ratios are more common. By that metric, we can see the lowest low in Treasuries by mid July.