When looking at the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) exchange traded fund (ETF), it is important to consider whether or not interest rates are likely to rise or remain low. Here, the relationship between Treasury yield bonds and interest rates is key to understand.
Generally speaking, if you predict interest rates to rise in the future, it is best to avoid long-term bonds (such as the TFT, which is a 20-year Treasury bond) that could lock in a lower interest rate. However, if you believe interest rates will fall, then it makes sense to invest in an ETF like the TFT.
Long-dated U.S. Treasuries remain the best non-derivative hedge for Canadian investors. Now there will be a time when we won’t want to touch US Treasuries with a 10 foot pole but for now, Treasuries and the U.S. dollar are still seen as safe haven assets and should provide us protection if/when stocks falter.