If they cut rates, I still expect bond maturities to go down and for TLT to go up.
With the current landscape I am feeling very comfortable with the prices I got for my OTM calls and the ROI .
I'll update later today after the meeting which is less than two hours away currently.
Happy trading everyone, try and be as positive of an impact as you can be everyday. Good luck with any of your plays today
Technical analysis doesn't really follow TLT since it is actually based on society and fundamentals around inflation, the fed, bond maturities rates and more. We just had a fed announce they lowered interest rates. So bond maturity rates are going down and the inverse of that is going....up.
You are asking right now if you should long the bond market when they just lowered interest rates which is sort of the opposite. Market timing is everything but these are my 2cents.
The fed said they wouldn't even consider raising interest rates until they had a large amount of evidence to support current and future inflation rates. So going long on bonds is a bad move here.
Lastly, if the stock market starts to drop and money goes into bonds, the price of the bonds go up BUT the maturity rates go down which is very good for TLT.
Thanks for your comment, always available to give my opinion.