Auto Sector is a Leading Indicator of Market Tops

This is a custom index using Toyota+Honda+Ford's long term charts plotted against the S&P 500 (both using moving averages to smooth data).

It's pretty simple, when the auto sector is diverging from major equity indexes in a negative fashion, that = bad stuff ahead. The auto sector has shown that it peaks before the s&p 500 does, which makes sense due to fundamental factors. Auto's require lots of capital to build, and a lot of raw materials that are subject to inflation . This means late-cycle inflation often hurts the auto sector before it starts to trickle down elsewhere. Additionally, autos are also subject to credit markets, where higher rates = more difficulty financing cars. This causes purchases to drop due to people having less money to throw around and credit being more expensive.

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