A policy of average inflation does not imply that there will be steeper hikes.
Three important things are to be noted, then for the other insights of a marco nature, I refer you to the analyzes included in the 30yr chart that you find just below.
The FED placebo effect of stimulus packages shows a shorter impact. Trillions of dollars spent create a small positive effect that lasts for less than three months but leaves a massive trail of debt behind. Central banks are increasingly hostage to governments that simply will not curb deficit spending and will not implement structural reforms. Market participants know this and take incremental levels of risk knowing that central banks will not taper, which leads to a more fragile environment and extreme levels of complacency.
ECB with a change in its inflation target, would allow the central bank to exceed its 2% limit without change of policy. So if the ECB lets inflation go, some interesting considerations can be made: the euro is destined to become the next "new lira". There will be no reimbursement of debt and we will have two scenarios before us, both very bad: 1) Stagflation or 2) Deflation
IMPORTANT:
Please remind yourself that this is just my personal view on the market. My analysis should NOT serve as any recommendation to buy or to sell.
Always make your analysis of your own before your trade.
If you find useful my analysis, please hit the LIKE button and follow me.
Please remind yourself that this is just my personal view on the market. My analysis should NOT serve as any recommendation to buy or to sell.
Always make your analysis of your own before your trade.
If you find useful my analysis, please hit the LIKE button and follow me.