need to take a hard look at your risk assets that hold long term debt, 10 year t bills currently consolidating, about to sell off and have a come-to-jesus moment, equities will reprice, 2-4 taper tantrums on the way before we hit 2024. We break above this down channel and hold, that 3 decade clamp on bonds will be un done, stocks watershed off the backside of their spike up.
There's only so much stock a company can buy back to keep it's multiple elevated. The larger what ifs in the near term are if Europe recovers & reopens faster, and mid term if inflation becomes more distorted based on perception, like...what if the price action of goods is just too good not compete for sometime, 2-3 years of gouging, then labor pricing piles on, then we could hyper-inflate, stag-flate if labor decidedly doesn't give a rats ass about getting back to shit jobs, driving up demand for the underbelly services, you get the picture.
Technology is supposedly a main thesis to why rates have been low for so long. We're about to punch holes into that theory as semi conductors run short everywhere. If tech-drievn economy is so damn smart why are we f cked on that front? Rates going higher.
There's only so much stock a company can buy back to keep it's multiple elevated. The larger what ifs in the near term are if Europe recovers & reopens faster, and mid term if inflation becomes more distorted based on perception, like...what if the price action of goods is just too good not compete for sometime, 2-3 years of gouging, then labor pricing piles on, then we could hyper-inflate, stag-flate if labor decidedly doesn't give a rats ass about getting back to shit jobs, driving up demand for the underbelly services, you get the picture.
Technology is supposedly a main thesis to why rates have been low for so long. We're about to punch holes into that theory as semi conductors run short everywhere. If tech-drievn economy is so damn smart why are we f cked on that front? Rates going higher.