I just was surfing charts and wanted to point this out, as the main theme from the media and analysts is that yields are going up. Period.
I agree in that I think rates will be higher if measured in years or decades, but shorter term, they are at stiff resistance. This monthly chart going back to the mid 1960's has a very clear downward trend line that we recently tested and failed. Since we're talking decades-long trends, it will not be overcome easily or quickly, barring some catastrophe by the FedRes or an implosion of the economy. The latter seems unlikely given the data, but the former is certainly possible. That's not to say I expect them to screw up, but just that it seems to be the more likely factor that would greatly impact the US Treasury market.
Anyways, take it for what it's worth, but the "rising rate environment" mantra is not as written in stone as some proclaim. We'll revisit this in a few decades to see what happened. ;)
I agree in that I think rates will be higher if measured in years or decades, but shorter term, they are at stiff resistance. This monthly chart going back to the mid 1960's has a very clear downward trend line that we recently tested and failed. Since we're talking decades-long trends, it will not be overcome easily or quickly, barring some catastrophe by the FedRes or an implosion of the economy. The latter seems unlikely given the data, but the former is certainly possible. That's not to say I expect them to screw up, but just that it seems to be the more likely factor that would greatly impact the US Treasury market.
Anyways, take it for what it's worth, but the "rising rate environment" mantra is not as written in stone as some proclaim. We'll revisit this in a few decades to see what happened. ;)