RealMacro

TOL 16 Year Double Top In Play

Short
NYSE:TOL   Toll Brothers, Inc
With rising long-term rates so low, extremely low inventories with very favorable commodity prices (till recently)
and very favorable lending conditions pushing home prices higher it is not unreasonable for prices to fall with
higher rising long rates, commodities , and increased supply. Though bank lending should remain very favorable.
See chart below.


Banks pay savers at 2-year rates and loan out at a 10-year rate or more. The chart is currently showing historically high-profit margins
for banks. One out of four may not be enough to keep home prices high to help push TOL above the double top at this point.