Toncoin: bounce or breakdown? key levels to watch this week

Toncoin. Tired of watching it bleed or ready to trade the bounce? After the hype around its ecosystem partnerships and the recent shakeout across majors, Toncoin is still stuck in a heavy downtrend and every pop is getting sold into, according to market chatter. Volatility is back, which means opportunity if you’re precise with levels.

On the 4H chart price is pressing under a chunky supply area around 1.38-1.40 with repeated rejections there and point of control slightly below. RSI made a lower high while price retested that zone - classic bearish divergence. With that and the dominant downtrend, I lean short bias, expecting sellers to defend 1.40 unless some fresh catalyst brings real spot demand.

My base plan: as long as 1.40 holds as resistance, I expect a slide toward 1.32, then 1.26-1.22 where the next demand cluster sits ✅. If buyers suddenly push and we get a clean 4H close above 1.40 with volume, that invalidates the short idea and opens the door to 1.47 then 1.55 ⚠️. I might be wrong, but for now I’m hunting shorts near 1.38-1.40 with tight risk above the range high.