Expected breakthrough from TON or news bluff again?

The key problem of TON as an asset is now in a long-term Bear market, which began in June 24, and the general negative background in the market is not at all conducive to a reversal upward
Previously there was a powerful narrative (Telegram + Web3) and there was a pump → then a long cooling
It's very similar to:
SOLUSDT SOL after 2021
ADAUSDT after 2021
DOTUSDT DOT after 2021
That is, there is a narrative, but the money has not yet been returned.

What the TON chart says (historical fact):
ATH: $8.27 (June 2024)
Current levels: $1.2–1.3
Drop by -60%...-85% from the high.
This is a classic trend break after hype + distribution.
Technical now:
70–77% of indicators are bearish
RSI ≈ neutral (not oversold, no strong rebound)
The price is in a long-term downward/sideways channel, but the trend has not reversed and this is important

Fundamental (what is the strength of TON)?
Here's where it gets interesting:
✅ Strengths:
1) Integration with Telegram (≈1 billion users)
2) Wallet directly in the application (+10% in staking on popular cryptocurrencies)
3) Ecosystem growth (payments, mini apps)
4) Real use-case (not just DeFi)
This is a huge plus - distribution > technology

❗️ But there are risks:
1)Addiction to Telegram and Pavel Durov
2) Regulatory risks (Europe is already pressing, the USA is ready)
3) Competition (Solana, Ethereum L2)
4) The token did not become a “must-have asset” even within telegrams. NFT gifts do not bring any practical benefit to the owners.

Forecast until 06/01/2026 (realistic)
The most likely scenario is: $1.5 – $2.5 (weak sideways growth with rebounds)
Bull scenario: $3–5 (if the crypto market is growing and Telegram is actively pushing TON - the least likely scenario.
Bear script: $0.8 – $1.2 if the market is weak or TONUSDT TON does not receive liquidity

My honest conclusion is that TON is now not a trend investment, but a speculative asset with a foundation.
There is no upward trend here, but a short-term jump could be strong if the stars align positively in the near future. In my channel you can find more interesting ideas!