Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly, Phil
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This is pure raw speculation.. So whoever blindly use this chart is going to have troubles ! But to give you a glimpse of projected time and amplitude theoric projection (pbly with a 20-25% margin for error).
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And just so you understand why "holding for 10y" is the wrong thing to do if a bubble emerges like I think it could.. Here's what happens after the top in terms of retracements and timings. We "could" retrace right back to the marketcap we had right back on march this year.. around 1,5T$. In the event of a "theoretical" 10T$ maximum that would mean an 85% drop from ATH which is a standard for crashing patterns.
Hey Phil, I'm a long time fan and thank you for another great analysis. However, I take issue with the lead in chart showing the adoption rate of crypto compared with the internet. I took a deep dive into how Crypto.com did their market sizing [1] and I don't think its comparable to internet adoption. The "number of crypto users" is much more accurately described as "number of crypto investors". Unlike the internet adoption where 100 million people referred to 100 million actual people connected to and using the internet, the number of people that own crypto is not a suitable reflection of its adoption in my opinion.
A recent research survey by crypto.com [2] interviewed ~15k people who had an average of 2.35 years of crypto experience. They found that "54% of respondents treated cryptocurrency as an investment; 26% as technology and only 21% as a currency." Furthermore of the people surveyed "only 36% of respondents had experience on direct crypto payment." So for arguments sake, even if there are 100 million unique investors and these survey results are representative of that population (which they are not because most existing investors arrived inside the past two years), then that means 36 million people have ever made a direct crypto payment. Building on that, I speculate that many of those people have probably only made one or few such transactions such as myself. People who were adopting the internet in the mid 1990s (and I remember this period as well), they did so and never looked back. They started using it and realized it was the present and the future. In my opinion, crypto is still the future but not the present.
It is important to also consider who is making these reports and coming up with these figure and what their financial interests are. Crypto.com and whoever made the chart you shared are obviously people that are heavily invested in the ecosystem and have motive to over-hype the current state of cryptocurrencies.
What do you think about this? Does it revise your thinking at all?
@crypt0guy, agreed ! Things can hardly be compared. Anyway if you got my point, this chart was just the baseline that gave me the idea to compare a broad crypto market (total) vs broad tech market back in 2000.
crypt0guy
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@PRO_Indicators, I think its probably the closest modern example we have to look at for comparison. No two situations will every be exactly the same. However, I do think we are earlier in the adoption phase than most commentators will say. Thanks for always putting yourself out there and being open to comments.
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@crypt0guy, I absolutely agree with you. I don't see the whole world hodling, but I do see a lot of ppl fully aware of what BTC is... def wasn't the case back in 2018.. my friends were just into XRP because.. well it was XRP and it was THE THING ! Even though we've made progress there is still a lot of things to do before main adoption. And more importantly, I think I need to clarify, I'm talking about CRYPTO adoption, not BTC. That's why I've studied crypto total index and not btc
RossConsidine
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Phil, Just looking at the 2018 top and where we are today. Just a small point and may not mean too much but at the start of the fall in 2018 btc rallied 70% not 61.8%, and we have done the same just now. So anyway I am following the two charts to see if the same type chart pattern plays out.
vgooijer
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Thnx Phil, before your video I was convinced that we are in for a hell off a ride the coming year.
But in the end a crashing pattern will emerge just like it did in the past. To many dodgy projects, to much dumb money flowing in and everyone is quitting their jobs because they think the are god's greatest traders and will never have to work again. Timing is of the essence and this comparison gives a sort off timeline what to expect.
Thnx again!
ps. Not to be thief of my own wallet (as we say in Dutch) but the free ride on your info and indicators has been great, but I wouldn't mind at all to start paying. The info you provide, and the technical support of the indicators is definitely worth money.
PRO_Indicators
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@vgooijer, Don't get me wrong, I still don't think a bubble is the likely outcome. In a trend bad projects can dump but normally they're replaced by better project with better tech. That's the story of every bullrun. I think we're trending. But I've noticed recently that the speculation is still there, and that if it keeps going that way, well another bubble top could be made. BUT the message here is to understand that either we spend some time here to consolidate, or we bubble trade, but anyhow we'll still pbly be there trading the current price area next year ;) One version just makes a 5x up and then down in between were the other is less fancy and would just build a range between 50-100k btc without too much excitement on alts !
PRO_Indicators
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Oh and of course >> this is just putting a potential projection of the market switching into a bubble. Surely we are in a sector that could easily go bubblish once again. But despite the fact I still think it's not the likeliest outcome for cryptos. The alternate (major) pbty for me stands for a trend to last for approx 1-2years with eventually an overspeculation right at the end of it. I just wanted to highlight there an alternate option in which things rapidly rise out of control during the summer. Leading to another super-speculative price action. Which would likely not extend beyond the end of this year ! The decision cluster would be around june july. So pay attention to this if we follow the early pattern structure till then !
Bonjour, merci pour cette explication très intéressante ! Cependant, je n'ai pu comprendre que superficiellement et je le regrette un peu. La video existe/va exister en français?
A recent research survey by crypto.com [2] interviewed ~15k people who had an average of 2.35 years of crypto experience. They found that "54% of respondents treated cryptocurrency as an investment; 26% as technology and only 21% as a currency." Furthermore of the people surveyed "only 36% of respondents had experience on direct crypto payment." So for arguments sake, even if there are 100 million unique investors and these survey results are representative of that population (which they are not because most existing investors arrived inside the past two years), then that means 36 million people have ever made a direct crypto payment. Building on that, I speculate that many of those people have probably only made one or few such transactions such as myself. People who were adopting the internet in the mid 1990s (and I remember this period as well), they did so and never looked back. They started using it and realized it was the present and the future. In my opinion, crypto is still the future but not the present.
It is important to also consider who is making these reports and coming up with these figure and what their financial interests are. Crypto.com and whoever made the chart you shared are obviously people that are heavily invested in the ecosystem and have motive to over-hype the current state of cryptocurrencies.
What do you think about this? Does it revise your thinking at all?
Thanks!
Sources:
[1] assets.ctfassets.net/hfgyig42jimx/5u8QqK4lqjEgL506mOx4m3/d44d8e204aecfc75a839e2a9d505f5d1/Crypto.com_Data_Report_-_On-chain_Market_Sizing.pdf
[2] assets.ctfassets.net/hfgyig42jimx/7e9Dv5etuGFsrQB0XN2QFc/b0d76f49e13f921c5b8e3250352267f4/Crypto.com_Survey_Report_-_Crypto_Adoption.pdf