If the coronavirus correction never happened, we would have had a clearer sideways corrective path. Given the deep capitulation, I am expecting a stronger than moderate pump before the next correction. The correction will likely coincide with (after) the halving event in mid-May.
Looking at the volume, we can clearly see accumulating throughout the past 1-1.5 years.
I have said for months now that BTC.D has been topping out and down-trending.
Altcoins' weekly 50/100 period MA are crossing bullish for the first time in 2 years. A huge long-term indication of a shift in momentum. We are already seeing some alt-coins popping (check out DGBUSD). Like our last bull market, money will flow from one alt coin pump, to another. My hunch is this will happen in waves. We can see the rumblings of this beginning now.
From my perspective, here is the most probable scenario during the next month: - BTC surges up to ~8.5k range - Altcoins continue to pop and go up more than BTC, leading to BTC.D making a new down-leg - BTC corrects significantly, back to the 5.5-6.5k range. Altcoins will suffer much more than BTC. During this time, I will be converting almost all my BTC to alt coins - Regarding the halving, there's a mini version right now of "buy the rumor sell the news". I believe that people are accumulating and there will be a sell off soon after the halving event
I believe that altcoin season is coming soon, after the post-halving correction.
But what's the point to make TA on crypto total market cap? Every day a bunch of new coins appear, old ones are dissapear and they have a direct impact on this chart; not just the total price of all coin, i.e TA on it doesn't make any sense.
unaveragejoe
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@Bitduke, It's an interesting point and you might be right, but a few points/questions that I would love more clarity on:
- It looks like this chart essentially matches BTCUSD's movement but takes into account the volatility from alt coins
- Are more alt coins being create not creating more gross dollars in the crypto market? Accumulation can come in the form of people buying into new alt coins too. In that case, since you're already dealing with an altcoin, the money is increasingly likely to be traded for other altcoins
That being said, can you clarify why it doesn't make sense?
Yes, more alts - more gross dollars in the crypto market. But to draw some support/resistance lines on the chart is incorrect because this chart affected *not only* by price fluctuation of *existing* altcoins but adding new ones / deleting old ones.
For example, it can be imaging a situation where bitcoin is ranging for weeks but this chart is growing and not because of rising overall alts prices, but just simply because of adding a lot of new alts to global coinmarketcap.
I.e it'll be just wrong to conclude "hey, BTC is ranging, but cryptocap:total is rising hence whales are buying alts!". No, it can grow as well because of new money in the system, i.e all other alts could be falling or whales buying only new alts and old ones are forgotten or something else, we cannot know it for sure.
unaveragejoe
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@Bitduke, Thank you for your reply. By what criteria do you draw support or resistance lines? If you're using price action and volume, then I'm not sure what the big difference is (or I might just be stubborn).
Also, I'm not sure what coins are included in the Total chart, CMC tells me it should be $220,884,437,689 where this chart says it is currently $217,155,336,196. I tried searching what cryptos are included in the Total chart I used here, but couldn't find the list. My guess is it is probably just including the top 200 or so (by marketcap).
Kinda agree with it.
But what's the point to make TA on crypto total market cap? Every day a bunch of new coins appear, old ones are dissapear and they have a direct impact on this chart; not just the total price of all coin, i.e TA on it doesn't make any sense.