To get more clues on what BTC is doing, I analyzed the TOTAL (Total Crypto Market Cap). I use Elliott, trendlines, and fibonacci. I keep getting the same results on many analysis, of the bull run starting in October. I label my waves 1 A W and 2 B and Y. Why is that? There is a real possibility, that crypto does a huge pump for months, then another bear market hits. So I keep these corrective labels to remind me. This idea lines up with the fact that the US Treasury yield curves inverted 11 months ago. If you are not aware, in past history, recessions hit anywhere from immediate to 17 months after a yield curve inversion.
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On the daily in log scale, I show how multi-year trendlines and support/resistance lines seem to have importance.
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On the weekly in arithmetic, I show how a support trendline may show us that we are near the bottom.
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TOTAL count update. So, it looks like TOTAL is completing a flat with a flat-c impulse down. Very likely, it will end wave 5 in the golden zone (0.618-0.65 fib). Then the bull market starts.
Without new buyers (based on new demand), there is no liquidity to support a bull run at this time. Maybe in about a year there will be increased demand (after CBDCs are “released”?), but for now I see no new buyers, only the same group of traders and speculators. How can TOTAL inflate w/o an injection of liquidity?
gz1968
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@TheLeadingIndicator, ETH gets approved. Boom! Investors even sniff that an ETF approval will get approved. Boom! Notice that Congress gave Gary Gensler a shellacking over not approving spot BTC ETF. He can read the writing on the wall. It is coming. ETH-ETF futures could begin trading as early as next Tuesday — BBG ETF analyst
@TheLeadingIndicator, The chart just got attacked by a crayola box. :-)) What is that?
TheLeadingIndicator
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@gz1968, That is the ETH/BTC chart, which tells a grim tale for ETH. The BTC forecast isn't much prettier, at least not if you're a bull. To your point, though, when ETH futures are publicly traded as an ETF, speculators will Short the shit out of it and the price will fall, not rise. Yeah, it's a catalyst ... an apex-predator Grizzly of a catalyst, and not a grazing male cow of a catalyst. Cheers.
WeAreSat0shi
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There is bullish divergence on the daily and we are on very strong and important support level. a down move won't lead to October rally. It would take a lot longer to do so after that. Now, it can flash down and wick but not close under support for a move in the near future. I think this is most likely but is based on my opinion so it means nothing.