According to a simple projection of a parabola, similarly to the previous cycle and making a linear projection of the previous highs this market could be headed to 46 T ! Yes ! Trillion with a capital T !
46'000 Billion !!
This would be a 30 x from here. Seems outrageous to me... However that would be in line with the previous cycle (2017), where we went from 17 to 850 Billion.
Some of you will call me delusional ... let's see how far this thing goes ...
@nevada999, same thing people said in 2014 about Bitcoin !! It is impossible that Bitcoin reaches 1000 USD !!
BMLemon
⋅
@Dangermousebanana, the difference is the market cap was much smaller back then. But you're right in the sense that one should never say never.
Dangermousebanana
⋅
@BMLemon, I know it is outrageous !! But in 2015- 2018 cycle we went from 3 to 850 Billion ! That is a 283 x !!
My point is we could go from 100 to 46'000 Billion ! That is a 460 x !!
It may be somewhat off ... but I thinks that's where we are headed !!
BMLemon
⋅
@Dangermousebanana, I think someday we will. Have you considered the contrarian arguments? What sorts of events could derail the progress?
Dangermousebanana
⋅
@BMLemon , maybe the end of the pandemic, debt forgivness and going back to a cash based gold backed monetary system....
BMLemon
⋅
@Dangermousebanana, well I doubt we'll go back to a gold based system. But debt forgiveness will most certainly wipe out all risk assets as it would revalue the dollar. I think all we'd have to see is a reversal in DXY and everything gets crushed. Considering everyone is SURE the dollar is crashing, this will likely come as a major market upset, and mostly likely outcome.
Dangermousebanana
⋅
@BMLemon, I just tried to guess something very unlikely that could be deflanionary and that could stop this bull run in digital assets. But you came up with an interesting perspective that fiew people expect. I heard to a podcast from Raoul Pal with Robert Kiosaky - they are also expecting a dollar push since the whole world is short the dollar ! Are you taking some crypto profits already ? What are your exit signals ??
BMLemon
⋅
@Dangermousebanana, Yes, I'm out of crypto. I'm in cash and short SPX. The rhetoric around inflation is just too strong, the greed in the market is too high, I'll take the contrarian position. But I'm wrong all the time, who knows what will happen. Oh, I'm also long TLT because of the HUGE short squeeze that is forming there.