Don't Miss This! Here's How Close We Could Be To Alt Season! =D
Are we closing in on alt season? That's the million dollar question. In this analysis, we're going to take a simplified look at the alts, to try to determine how far we may be from alt season. This is a weekly chart of the cryptocurrency market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin. On this chart, we can see that there are some similarities to the current price action, in comparison to the price action during 2015.
As you can see, the Gaussian channel was initially green and rising. Then, it turned red. Immediately after the Gaussian Channel turned red, price entered a downtrend for about eight weeks, losing 43%. This downtrend was actually below the Gaussian Channel. Then, price rallied back into the channel, topping out at the midline. From there, alts retested the bottom of the Gaussian Channel. Now, you can't see it on the MACD because of the scale, but a bullish crossover happened in late November of 2015 (green vertical trendline.) From there, price broke out above the Gaussian Channel, and it flipped back to green, signaling the beginning of alt season.
Today's movement is very similar. We can see that the Gaussian Channel was rising, and then it turned red, immediately producing a seven week decline, which resulted in a roughly 60% loss to market cap. This selloff also occurred below the Gaussian Channel. So, the time after the flip to red, the duration, and the magnitude were all very similar to 2015. From there, price rallied back into the Gaussian Channel. However, this time the rally topped out at the top of the GC. Now, alt coin market cap has returned to the bottom of the channel, similar to what was seen in 2015. Now, this is where we need to look at the MACD. WE can see that it appears to be flattening out a bit, and the histogram is showing a decrease in downside momentum. So, if the MACD can produce a bullish crossover, that would be the next sign to suggest that we are on our way to alt season. I've drawn a vertical green dashed trendline to show roughly where a bullish MACD crossover could take place, but until then, we are currently on track for alt season to kick off within the next few months, based on this historical comparison.
On the other hand, if the alts produce a sustained breakdown below the Gaussian Channel, that would be an unexpected deviation from the trend, which would be very concerning. One thing worth mentioning, is that the Gaussian Channel will turn green whenever it starts to slope upwards. The channel is basically flat right now. So, we could see it turn green as early as next week. It is very close to turning green right now. So, alt season could be much closer than most people think.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
As you can see, the Gaussian channel was initially green and rising. Then, it turned red. Immediately after the Gaussian Channel turned red, price entered a downtrend for about eight weeks, losing 43%. This downtrend was actually below the Gaussian Channel. Then, price rallied back into the channel, topping out at the midline. From there, alts retested the bottom of the Gaussian Channel. Now, you can't see it on the MACD because of the scale, but a bullish crossover happened in late November of 2015 (green vertical trendline.) From there, price broke out above the Gaussian Channel, and it flipped back to green, signaling the beginning of alt season.
Today's movement is very similar. We can see that the Gaussian Channel was rising, and then it turned red, immediately producing a seven week decline, which resulted in a roughly 60% loss to market cap. This selloff also occurred below the Gaussian Channel. So, the time after the flip to red, the duration, and the magnitude were all very similar to 2015. From there, price rallied back into the Gaussian Channel. However, this time the rally topped out at the top of the GC. Now, alt coin market cap has returned to the bottom of the channel, similar to what was seen in 2015. Now, this is where we need to look at the MACD. WE can see that it appears to be flattening out a bit, and the histogram is showing a decrease in downside momentum. So, if the MACD can produce a bullish crossover, that would be the next sign to suggest that we are on our way to alt season. I've drawn a vertical green dashed trendline to show roughly where a bullish MACD crossover could take place, but until then, we are currently on track for alt season to kick off within the next few months, based on this historical comparison.
On the other hand, if the alts produce a sustained breakdown below the Gaussian Channel, that would be an unexpected deviation from the trend, which would be very concerning. One thing worth mentioning, is that the Gaussian Channel will turn green whenever it starts to slope upwards. The channel is basically flat right now. So, we could see it turn green as early as next week. It is very close to turning green right now. So, alt season could be much closer than most people think.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-