Are we closing in on alt season? That's the million dollar question. In this analysis, we're going to take a simplified look at the alts, to try to determine how far we may be from alt season. This is a weekly chart of the cryptocurrency market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin. On this chart, we can see that there are some similarities to the current price action, in comparison to the price action during 2015.
As you can see, the Gaussian channel was initially green and rising. Then, it turned red. Immediately after the Gaussian Channel turned red, price entered a downtrend for about eight weeks, losing 43%. This downtrend was actually below the Gaussian Channel. Then, price rallied back into the channel, topping out at the midline. From there, alts retested the bottom of the Gaussian Channel. Now, you can't see it on the MACD because of the scale, but a bullish crossover happened in late November of 2015 (green vertical trendline.) From there, price broke out above the Gaussian Channel, and it flipped back to green, signaling the beginning of alt season.
Today's movement is very similar. We can see that the Gaussian Channel was rising, and then it turned red, immediately producing a seven week decline, which resulted in a roughly 60% loss to market cap. This selloff also occurred below the Gaussian Channel. So, the time after the flip to red, the duration, and the magnitude were all very similar to 2015. From there, price rallied back into the Gaussian Channel. However, this time the rally topped out at the top of the GC. Now, alt coin market cap has returned to the bottom of the channel, similar to what was seen in 2015. Now, this is where we need to look at the MACD. WE can see that it appears to be flattening out a bit, and the histogram is showing a decrease in downside momentum. So, if the MACD can produce a bullish crossover, that would be the next sign to suggest that we are on our way to alt season. I've drawn a vertical green dashed trendline to show roughly where a bullish MACD crossover could take place, but until then, we are currently on track for alt season to kick off within the next few months, based on this historical comparison.
On the other hand, if the alts produce a sustained breakdown below the Gaussian Channel, that would be an unexpected deviation from the trend, which would be very concerning. One thing worth mentioning, is that the Gaussian Channel will turn green whenever it starts to slope upwards. The channel is basically flat right now. So, we could see it turn green as early as next week. It is very close to turning green right now. So, alt season could be much closer than most people think.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Realistically speaking, do you really expect alts to have another "season"? The overwhelming majority of alts are useless shitcoins. Very very similar to what we had with the dot com boom where the overwhelming majority of companies were worthless websites with "great plans and ideas". The difference with alts is that the gullible dreamers call these things "great projects". My analysis shows that the vast majority of alts will vaporize into nothing.
MagicPoopCannon
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@BlurShines, There are many shit coins, and there are many really great crypto projects out there. I think the shit coins will die, but the overall alt market cap should rise, as the value of the good projects increases. Most shitcoins are already worthless anyways, and most good projects already have relevant value. Thanks for commenting.
objectivemoon
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@BlurShines, There have been alt seasons for as long as alts have existed, it does not matter that projects are good or not, people are here to make money.
BTW did you see the most serious projects rise in value over time? No, it depends on marketing, timeframes and strategy mostly, showing that people follow what they believe will make them money. And shitcoins are appealing and they will always be.
Do you buy in your everyday life all the best products? How do you know they are? It is the same with crypto products.
BlurShines
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@objectivemoon,
Your statement that "shitcoins are appealing and they always will be" is beyond naive. The end of multimillion-dollar valuations based on noob hopes and wet lambo dreams will end for the vast majority of shitcoins. When that happens exactly is unknown but its coming.
100% guaranteed!!
objectivemoon
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@BlurShines, Not certain that your way of speaking is appropriate for a grown up, I might be naive but at least educated.
To come back to the subject I see the number of altcoins and projects around blockchain growing in number still to this day, showing there is interest.
When this tendency will flip I will consider reviewing my thoughts. Saying that it will happen eventually is like if I say the Earth will die one day, so much for affirmation. Good day.
objectivemoon
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@BlurShines, Just like i said, your attitude and way of speech speak well for your credibility. Good day still.
ceesounds
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Alts are about to rip to new ATH's. Some alts are front running the market and we are seeing the same exponential gains. Massive moves coming for XLM, XRP, and ALOT of alts. Get ready.
streetgainer
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There is no such thing as an "alt season".
2017 was an anomaly bubble. It won't be repeated for MANY reasons, but the most obvious one is, there is an excess of gullible people buying into the notion that there will be an "alt season". This phenomena creates a huge profit potential for unregulated exchanges, which is all of them.
They sell you crypto (e.g. XRP at .45 cents lol!!) connected to projects that are going nowhere, in exchange for your eth, btc or Fiat. They then continue to push the price lower than what they were able to sell from their order book. Since they provide the liqudity, they control the direction. As we all know, the direction is down. They then capture difference between what they sold you that crap for and what you sell it back to them for when you capitulate. Rinse and repeat. For those who don't know, there is no large swaths of traders trading 24hrs, this does not exist in crypto. It's just you buying and selling to and from a liquidity bot, aka an exchange.
Any knowledgeable trader would know that an "alt season" would imply an arbitrage. Yeeeeah, wait for it.
This tells me you have No experience in trading and how markets work.
kevinjames007
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@streetgainer, so all these exchanges have no one buying or selling. If that were true how do they make money? The direction is down? Bitcoin is the most appreciated asset in history! Could it go down, sure. Could many cryptos go way down, sure. Will some produce huge gains like never seen, sure. Unless crypto is useless and thousands of corporations are going to ignore a new technology that can have so many benefits. Correct my if I'm wrong but that internet thing kind of worked out okay.