Many Altcoins Could Double Within The Next Week
There's not much new to add to my view of the market, except for the fact that we are still slowly grinding up on decreasing volume. However, it's important to note that our recent dip was bought up on HIGH volume. This signals to me that buyers are still eager to get into this market. Volume has only decreased since Bitcoin got back above the 8500 support.
Both the ETHUSD and the Total altcoin market cap charts are still showing that we could be in a bullish ascending triangle formation (resistances around $284 and 115B respectively), if we happen to break up. An argument for a bearish wedge can be made as well, which may indicate a retrace to the bottom of the channel here....but take a look at Ethereum first. It's ALREADY above its ascending channel. In the above TOTAL2 chart, you can see that we're also above the major neckline resistance (recently broken and tested as support). In my opinion, these facts increase the likelihood that other altcoins will begin to experience some accelerated growth as well - in particular the ones that have appeared to lag during Bitcoin's recent run (XLM, XRP, VET, NANO, etc.). If you look at the USD charts of ANY of those coins I just mentioned, you'll see that they're all respecting slowly rising support levels, and are either in bull flag patterns or ascending triangles. In particular, XLM has come to the intersection of its long term bullish uptrend and the downtrend resistance from the entire bear market. It's one of the few top altcoins that has failed to convincingly reverse by breaking out of its downtrend. If XLM can do that here, I think it'll indicate that established alts as a whole will have a major boom. As you can see on the above charts, there isn't much historical overhead resistance once these areas are breached. This could explain why this potential move is being delayed - accumulation. If we are going to pop up, it could be VERY violent, and very fast. Total speculation, of course.
I'm a bit tired right now, so I won't be able to make a long-winded analysis out of this and post multiple charts. Just wanted to get this out there, in case we do happen to see a violent move very soon. Ethereum has continued to follow the speculative pathway I outlined for it when I compared it with the post-dotcom bubble AMZN chart.
Confirmation of this potential breakout would be if ETH can get above $285 and if XLM can get above $0.14 quickly and then sustain on increasing volume. One could go long here with a stop loss below the ascending triangle support, to play it conservatively. Or one could go long if those areas are broken, but a fakeout is possible as well. A fakeout would occur if we reach those levels, but buyers don't step in to sustain the rally. A break below the ascending triangle support and then a break below the channel support would then invalidate this idea.
One thing I'm very curious about is whether or not Bitcoin will continue to outperform most altcoins. If many alts do indeed double up from here, it will mean that either Bitcoin will explode quickly towards its ATH, or alts will start to increase on their ratios again. A combination of both would be extremely bullish, obviously. Let's see. I'm leaning towards altcoins reclaiming some of their dominance, since if they break out above current levels, I think an enormous amount of buying would occur across the board. It's also possible that alts continue to drift lower on their ratios, but they've been maintaining them fairly well (with some higher lows) over the last couple of weeks.
Anyway, this is for speculative and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor.
-Victor Cobra
Both the ETHUSD and the Total altcoin market cap charts are still showing that we could be in a bullish ascending triangle formation (resistances around $284 and 115B respectively), if we happen to break up. An argument for a bearish wedge can be made as well, which may indicate a retrace to the bottom of the channel here....but take a look at Ethereum first. It's ALREADY above its ascending channel. In the above TOTAL2 chart, you can see that we're also above the major neckline resistance (recently broken and tested as support). In my opinion, these facts increase the likelihood that other altcoins will begin to experience some accelerated growth as well - in particular the ones that have appeared to lag during Bitcoin's recent run (XLM, XRP, VET, NANO, etc.). If you look at the USD charts of ANY of those coins I just mentioned, you'll see that they're all respecting slowly rising support levels, and are either in bull flag patterns or ascending triangles. In particular, XLM has come to the intersection of its long term bullish uptrend and the downtrend resistance from the entire bear market. It's one of the few top altcoins that has failed to convincingly reverse by breaking out of its downtrend. If XLM can do that here, I think it'll indicate that established alts as a whole will have a major boom. As you can see on the above charts, there isn't much historical overhead resistance once these areas are breached. This could explain why this potential move is being delayed - accumulation. If we are going to pop up, it could be VERY violent, and very fast. Total speculation, of course.
I'm a bit tired right now, so I won't be able to make a long-winded analysis out of this and post multiple charts. Just wanted to get this out there, in case we do happen to see a violent move very soon. Ethereum has continued to follow the speculative pathway I outlined for it when I compared it with the post-dotcom bubble AMZN chart.
Confirmation of this potential breakout would be if ETH can get above $285 and if XLM can get above $0.14 quickly and then sustain on increasing volume. One could go long here with a stop loss below the ascending triangle support, to play it conservatively. Or one could go long if those areas are broken, but a fakeout is possible as well. A fakeout would occur if we reach those levels, but buyers don't step in to sustain the rally. A break below the ascending triangle support and then a break below the channel support would then invalidate this idea.
One thing I'm very curious about is whether or not Bitcoin will continue to outperform most altcoins. If many alts do indeed double up from here, it will mean that either Bitcoin will explode quickly towards its ATH, or alts will start to increase on their ratios again. A combination of both would be extremely bullish, obviously. Let's see. I'm leaning towards altcoins reclaiming some of their dominance, since if they break out above current levels, I think an enormous amount of buying would occur across the board. It's also possible that alts continue to drift lower on their ratios, but they've been maintaining them fairly well (with some higher lows) over the last couple of weeks.
Anyway, this is for speculative and educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor.
-Victor Cobra
Comment:
Based on the behavior of many alts - it IS still possible that if Bitcoin makes another leg up, that they tank on their ratios even further, although they're starting to show signs of wanting to move up on the ratio. There are, however, only a few alts that are above established support zones against Bitcoin and have not broken their long term uptrends: EOS, TRX, BNB, and LINK. ETH I guess could be in that list as well, but it also keeps stalling. NEO, ONT, and ADA are both fairly close to reclaiming their long term support areas (1120 and 1700, respectively). I guess NANO managing to just stay above 2000 is somewhat positive as well. We'll see.
Comment:
Actually, looking at the XRP/BTC chart, it's exhibiting similar bullish price action to what led up to its explosion last September:
Current hourly chart
Pre-September rally hourly chart
Maybe I'll do a separate analysis on this.
Current hourly chart
Comment:
Looks like we are indeed getting some bullish action on coins like XRP and XLM. Let's see if they can break out here, or if they'll need to consolidate for a bit longer first.
Comment:
A well-timed XRP analysis:
Comment:
After a repeated failure to break out, it looks like we MAY have to head to the bottom of the channel, unless buyers can step in soon. I did mention this as a possibility. This means we could see as much as a 20% drop in most altcoins before we make another attempt to push higher. Ideally I'd like to find support now (and have this be a bear trap), or somewhere before we get to the bottom trendline.
Comment:
Interestingly enough, we have continued to find support in this area, and even have made a bit of a higher low. If bears can't make a better attempt to push us down towards the bottom of the channel, my idea for a major alt season beginning as early as sometime this week is still on the table:
Comment:
It's looking like a retest of the uptrend is becoming more likely. Volume just isn't there right now, but you never know.
Comment:
We have some alts like XRP attempting to break out, but the market doesn't look like it really wants to move up just yet.
