Alts Have Been Doing Better Than Bitcoin Since August
I'm pretty much stating the obvious here, but the question remains...will alts continue to outperform Bitcoin from here on out? When looking at these two charts, you can clearly see that altcoins are simply consolidating at the same support level from mid-late August, 2019. Alts were at similar USD valuations when Bitcoin was worth roughly 25% higher than today. This has all happened since I made these posts, trying to call the bottom on alt ratios versus Bitcoin:
Calling the top in dominance
Calling a bottom for ETH/BTC
Calling a bottom for XRP/XLM versus BTC
You can even see that after XRP dropped below its long term trendline (dark blue) it has rallied back above it and even recently backtested it as support!
Of course, the market can change at any moment, but this means that my view has continued to be fairly accurate over the last few months. It still seems like we're early in the next larger crypto market cycle. It's also hard to say when the next "big wave" up could occur. The market is flirting with already breaking its long term trendline. A break of the trendline would further confirm the slower growth scenario I've been talking about. But it can also break out to the upside any moment. All we can really do as investors, analysts, observers, or traders is prepare for the next large move. I think one thing is for sure: A large move is immanent. I've been particularly good at calling large macro moves, so we'll see if my track record continues.
I called the precise top for Bitcoin back in June (the very day we came close to $14K)
Right after that, I made a post about incoming sideways movement for Bitcoin.
Unfortunately, Bitcoin failed to hold the parabolic channel, and I've had to revise my outlook towards "slower growth." You can see how this period of the market cycle is taking much longer than last time. What's encouraging is that alts have started to gain on their ratios during this period. That's exactly what I expected for the early stages of a cryptocurrency bull market.
When observing the above charts, you can see that Bitcoin failed to hold even its 50 day moving average, while alts are still holding their own 50d MA. Alts are also perfectly holding the 200w MA as support now. Both are struggling at their downtrend channel resistances. It's safe to say that the market won't look bullish as a whole until these big downtrends are cleared. On the bearish side, we don't want these important horizontal support areas to fall, or both Bitcoin and alts can head down to the bottom of their channels. This would put Bitcoin back in the major mid-$6K support zone and alts back below $50 Billion. We should definitely be wary of this scenario as well. When we look at all of 2019, Bitcoin has outperformed almost every other cryptocurrency by a long shot. This is nothing new. It happened in the beginning of the last bull market. Is the tide slowly changing? For TOTAL2, we have a more obvious accumulation pattern, if we break to the upside: an inverse head and shoulders, with a neckline right around the important $80B level.
Let's see what happens. This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation, entertainment, and education only.
Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
Calling the top in dominance
Calling a bottom for ETH/BTC
Calling a bottom for XRP/XLM versus BTC
Of course, the market can change at any moment, but this means that my view has continued to be fairly accurate over the last few months. It still seems like we're early in the next larger crypto market cycle. It's also hard to say when the next "big wave" up could occur. The market is flirting with already breaking its long term trendline. A break of the trendline would further confirm the slower growth scenario I've been talking about. But it can also break out to the upside any moment. All we can really do as investors, analysts, observers, or traders is prepare for the next large move. I think one thing is for sure: A large move is immanent. I've been particularly good at calling large macro moves, so we'll see if my track record continues.
I called the precise top for Bitcoin back in June (the very day we came close to $14K)
Right after that, I made a post about incoming sideways movement for Bitcoin.
When observing the above charts, you can see that Bitcoin failed to hold even its 50 day moving average, while alts are still holding their own 50d MA. Alts are also perfectly holding the 200w MA as support now. Both are struggling at their downtrend channel resistances. It's safe to say that the market won't look bullish as a whole until these big downtrends are cleared. On the bearish side, we don't want these important horizontal support areas to fall, or both Bitcoin and alts can head down to the bottom of their channels. This would put Bitcoin back in the major mid-$6K support zone and alts back below $50 Billion. We should definitely be wary of this scenario as well. When we look at all of 2019, Bitcoin has outperformed almost every other cryptocurrency by a long shot. This is nothing new. It happened in the beginning of the last bull market. Is the tide slowly changing? For TOTAL2, we have a more obvious accumulation pattern, if we break to the upside: an inverse head and shoulders, with a neckline right around the important $80B level.
Let's see what happens. This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation, entertainment, and education only.
Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
