It's not a logarithmic line; you've got very clear cases where the trend diverged from this. Seems like a case of confirmation bias/fitting the trend that you want to see to me.
I think all this shows is confirmation that over time, the market trends upward.
mikepsinn
⋅
@slavrenz, Good point! however, the only cases of the divergence from the channel were downward due to Covid and the 2018 Fed rate increase.
There are 6 instances of it bouncing off the top of the channel and none breaking through over 10 years.
The last time it hit the top was September 1st where there was a sudden drop of ~35% without any obvious trigger other than it hit the top of this channel it hasn't broken through in 10 years.
I obviously have a high possibility of being wrong, but can you think of any good reason for a sudden drop like that in September?
I think all this shows is confirmation that over time, the market trends upward.