RealMacro

CRB Says Inflation Is Not Over Yet

Long
TVC:TRJEFFCRB   Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index
Inflation has been driven by excessive deficits ending up as savings in the hands of the few net savers
who ran out and speculated in all asset classes. Util Covid came along commodities were out of favor.
When the $6 trillion in deficits (or 40% of Real GDP) in a little over a year ended up as profit savings
in the hands of the few. Dollars started spilling over into the commodities from Stocks, Bonds, & Real Estate.

Many are blaming supply shortages, too much demand, M2 what have you. Do they contribute to inflation? Sure,
but that is not the cause. The cause is in money flows. back on March 16th, 2020, I posted this chart


Clearly, Money flowing into commodities pushing up interest rates was the root cause. As long as the CRB index
remains elevated inflation is not going away anytime soon. As the FED finally admitted this past meeting.

BTW Warren Molser was wrong about inflation. We got high inflation with Zero Interest rates, not higher rates.
Personally, I love this Tradingview feature with twits, it allows for some accountability in what people say to the masses.

Clearly, Molser is wrong, higher rates do not cause inflation (Think Volker who killed inflation with higher rates)

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