Luiserebii
Long

Tronix (TRON/TRX) Bullish Pennant - One Final Push? (102% Gains)

BINANCE:TRXBTC   TRON / Bitcoin
Tronix (TRON/TRX) has had quite the rise lately, rising from being a lower altcoin to being ranked #6 in terms of market cap. And now, in the twilight of the altcoins, as BTC prepares to rise, Tronix is preparing to break out of a larger bullish pennant visible in the hourly charts. Currently, BTC seems ready to sink a little in its current ascending channel (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD...) which will provide the fuel necessary for Tronix to burst upwards and enjoy one final run before Bitcoin hits it big.

Target is at 0.00002500 BTC .
Possible ~102% return if bought at breakout point, ~148% if bought at pennant bottom.

Wait for confirmation, and then enter. Trade with care.

If you like my analysis or I helped you in any way, feel free to send a tip - any support is greatly appreciated!
BTC: 37Y9BfaRS65fAXK3swnW8EWG9NDPeF2wrM
ETH: 0x97F20b3536dB21C07691fD46e021bCDd8e49483e
Comment: Some sideways movement at the moment - unclear if we will continue to head back down, monitor a break at around 1265 satoshis if you are looking to play a small short.
Comment: Looking good so far, things moving along well.
Comment: The seeds of a breakout are there, but I would say it wouldn't be confirmed until maybe 1470 satoshis. Still, looks very promising!
Comment: Looks like we'll be testing 910 - most signs point south for now. If we break 910, we are likely headed for 450.
Comment: No candlestick close below 910 - very strong resistance. Keep poised for next movements
Comment:

The next hour and a half may tell us much more on where TRX is going - there is a potential reverse head and shoulders that could play out if buying pressure is high enough, one which could close in that time period. However, best to wait for confirmation and not be too quick to jump.

The positive news is, resistance around 910-1000 is holding up very well, and there is a very consistent downtrend - whatever happens in the next 6 hours, huge movement will happen; and it's very possible that it's upwards.
Comment:

Potential break from descending wedge, and bullish pennant forming on 5 minute chart after potential break - could be a good sign, this trade may take much longer than I thought to resolve.
Comment: Bitcoin is breaking out from an ascending channel - not likely to happen in the next half hour
Comment: Just to clarify, this is what I mean by descending wedge:

I think that the resistance is reason to continue watching this coin. In the meantime, feel free to trade the volatility, very nice swings of 10-30%.
Comment:
I was tempted to publish this as a separate idea so that people would be able to see how the candlesticks develop in real-time. If you want me to publish this one, let me know in the comments and I'll do it as soon as I can.

I roughed out 4 resistance lines:
1. 0.00000986 BTC
2. 0.00000910 BTC
3. 0.00000805 BTC
4. 0.00000685 BTC

As you can see by the chart, we have approached these resistance lines and bounced off of them as we have approached them moving down the wedge. We are still looking fairly good - low RSI, candlesticks respecting trend lines, and moving closer to the end of the wedge.

Since we have moved down farther, I have made 2 new targets, depending on where we break out from:
1. 0.00002030 BTC
2. 0.00002200 BTC

I believe that likely we will continue to move down the wedge at this point, as traders attempt to shake holders and attempt to buy at lower prices. We are moving down the resistance lines, and soon, we will hit the last one.

The wedge is bullish, RSI is bullish, and things are moving along as they should. I doubt that most of the market cap will disappear in a sell-off - bullish movement seems like the logical next step.

That being said, always wait for confirmation, and be ready to move in either direction. Trade with care.
Comment:
Initial signs of liftoff! But will it last? If we hit above 1200 it's a little more certain, over 1350 satoshis and it's essentially confirmed.
Comment: Updated chart to better reflect trend shape by request:

Consolidation appearing on 15-minute chart, potential bullish pennant, but we'll have to wait and see:
Comment:
I was really thinking about this earlier, since at times I have attempted to identify wedges and triangles, sometimes undershooting, as although candlestick closes allow us to vaguely estimate a trend line, there is no guarantee as to how exaggerated the width of the movement may be.

This is not TA that is necessarily in a book, call it more like mathematical intuition - it became a question I wanted to play with, and after running a few calculations, I've developed something - not guaranteeing it to be true or not, more like a property of triangles.

Essentially, I broke down some of the trends between candlestick closes and abstracted them into trend lines, looked at the width of time length and degree of slope, and created projected trend lines based on those ratios. I thought it would be an interesting thing to try to see exactly where a candlestick needs to pass to truly liftoff - while there is no simple answer, I think the important thing is to always check that the newest high within its own "period" is higher than the last high relative to its own "period", maybe obvious since that is a property inherent to a triangle.

Basically, don't pay too much attention to this - I thought it was interesting, it was fun to think out a little, just wanted to throw this out there. Lots more to think about.
Comment: Things are looking up, TRON/TRX is hitting high 1100s satoshis, bullish pennant forming on 5-minute chart, volume looking up... if we can keep this momentum up, we may have a breakout!
Comment: I think it's safe to say we've broken out - hitting 1300 satoshis and higher!
Comment: Quick update, no breakout - seems like I misinterpreted the bullish movement from last night. TRON/TRX has been puzzling me in terms of shape, and perhaps to unfortunately add to the confusion, I will be suggesting another one:

After looking at the general support trend line that held up on the rise from December 31st to January 3rd (shown in black), I realized the lows of the newer candlesticks seemed to match this trend - I often don't make too much out of highs and lows, but I'm thinking that failure to close may just have been a matter of TRON/TRX resistance. What was especially noticeable to me was the strict close with no low towards the end of the 8th, which is even more evident in the 2-hour chart:

This, to me, seems to suggest that TRON/TRX is currently following the trend line from much earlier, and this would work to create a bullish pennant if we connect the top from the high at the night of the 7th. What is especially satisfying about this is that the angles are close to forming a symmetrical triangle, a good symbol of consolidation and the key to a bullish pennant.

Apologies, I seem to have overlooked the influence of that earlier trend line. I hope this is the last time I will need to update TRON/TRX, as it has really thrown me off. If this is the case, this may simply be an uncommon consolidation candlestick pattern. Lack of particular news, I wonder, may also be influencing this...?

The (hopefully) final target is around 0.00002300 BTC. Trade with care.
Comment: A very critical trend line has now been broken - this trade has become very risky. Please manage your risks as you feel appropriate.
Comment: Just to be clear, unless you are willing to hold for the long run, I would suggest considering taking losses and buying on the low, or waiting to see if this is simply temporary - please trade with care.
Comment:

Very quick update... this has been tricky to get right. TRON/TRX seems to have an announcement upcoming with a public listed company, perhaps Baofeng? May coincide at the lower end of the pennant - trade the volatility if you like. Trade with care.
Comment: Based on the current movement of TRON/TRX, I realize calling consolidation may have been a little premature; there is an overall downtrending resistance line that does not seem to have been broken, and paired with the bounces, seem to suggest a descending channel on the 8-hour candlestick chart... I would rather wait and see how we handle 1100-1200 satoshi range before posting a chart, though. If you are holding, the positive about this is that this can turn into a bullish flag, should buyers gain enough momentum. Otherwise, this may be a good opportunity for trading the volatility to increase TRX/BTC. Trade with care.
Comment:
A potentially significant update - over the past 6 days, but especially in the last 3, TRON/TRX has been squeezing - a sign of consolidation. This is good for foreseeing a move somewhere, due to trend pressure - however, where will TRON/TRX break out from here?

If we happen to break downwards, and the sellers overpower buyers, we will likely fall to the next set of resistances, roughly between 400 and 500 satoshis. The downtrend right before this consolidation forms a potential bearish flag, which if completed, would result in said movement.



On the other hand, the MACD is crossing over on the 4-hour chart - a potential sign of a new trend, in this case, bullish movement. With the news TRON/TRX has been receiving, along with generally good resistance, it is very possible for us to finally receive a breakout.

The chart of course, is not necessarily to scale - we will need to wait and see when this break occurs, but when it does, it should break those general slopes. Depending on the next direction of TRON/TRX, I will add a link to an idea with a chart that can be followed.

Trade with care.
Comment: Something I forgot to mention - the two blue downtrending lines may look off, but they are something that is much more visible on the 8 hour and 1 day charts:



The MACD, incidentally, is also showing us some positive signs on the 1 day chart. Personally, I am looking for at least a close at >1000 satoshis, as this will break that major trend line. Trade with care.
Comment: A better day for TRX so far - can we break 740 satoshis with this volume? I don't think so, but if we do and close on higher-time candlesticks, we may very well be very bullish!
Comment:

It looks like TRON/TRX has very likely finally broken out, as we have very strong signs on the 8-hour/daily charts, the key being the close of the 8-hour candlestick far above the upper trend line of the descending channel. Furthermore, we have MACD crossing over on the 8-hour chart, alongside with high volume, all signaling a bullish breakout.

If we are to be conservative, our current target would be 0.00001830 BTC - however, it is my belief that we will be testing the ATH on this push upwards, and depending on how far TRON/TRX pushes, I will suggest additional targets in the future.

Short-term, current movement is also set-up for a push, with a bullish pennant successfully forming on the 30-minute chart:



If we indeed push through, we will likely be hitting the resistance around 0.00000986 BTC before dropping and deciding how we decide to move next. Nevertheless, once this occurs, I will publish a new idea with these updated details.

Trade with care.
How do we gauge the fluctuations from here? Is the current upper resistance at 1300 Normal?
Reply
Luiserebii GustavoBrucestavo
@GustavoBrucestavo, I may have made a mistake in assuming certain things about TRON/TRX's shape - let me know if you still have any questions after looking over the recent update.
Reply
Well called Luis, I’ve been sitting on TRX for a few days now waiting for this. A well thought out analysis.
Reply
Also, would love to have that chart published to be able to track the candlesticks
Reply
Luiserebii GustavoBrucestavo
@GustavoBrucestavo, Check the update!
Reply
First off, amazing work and many thanks, I’ve followed your stuff for a while and you’re scary good.

Second, 3 questions:

1. How do you confidently apply stock techniques to a time chart based with a crypto base? ex. a stock chart is against a reasonably stable dollar where as these charts are trx/BTC, where BTC is fluctuating all the time, that must disrupt the flag and pennant reads.

2. How do you calculate a confirmation here?

3. Shouldn’t volume be a big factor in determining a breakout?
Reply
Luiserebii GustavoBrucestavo
@GustavoBrucestavo, Thank you, I'm flattered by your comment! I actually haven't done thorough study in everything on technical analysis, but I have studied crypto chart movements in the past, with my understanding of TA, of course. I'm always learning, and you will definitely be able to tell by my answers to your questions, haha.

1. Good question! I believe that although BTC is fluctuating all the time, I think it has been mutually agreed, in a sense to trade altcoins against BTC. It is technically more profitable if you consider that BTC will likely continue its bullish pattern, so acquiring more BTC through this method allows you to capitalize on both altcoin and BTC gains. As proof of this "mutual agreement", altcoins usually have the highest volume against BTC, such as TRX/BTC, which reached 24 hr volume of $1,104,750,000, over 10 times as large as the highest FIAT pair (TRON/KRW at $103,389,000), and is absolutely massive when you compare it with the closest to USD, Liqui's TRX/USDT (at $32,045,100). There is also perhaps the advantage in that not all exchanges can as easily deal with FIAT, and perhaps USDT lacks universal trust. You make a good point, BTC does fluctuate a lot, although thankfully not as much as many altcoins, but as a result, analyzing BTC movement is very useful for determining future altcoin movement. When BTC turns bullish, altcoins tend to go bearish, and vice versa. Chart patterns can break because of BTC, but it is up to the masses of traders to ultimately decide whether they let BTC head up or complete and altcoin pattern.

2. Confirmation is a tricky thing, I've been meaning to attempt to formalize a way to identify it, but the most important parts are open and closes on higher time scales - shorter time scales can fluctuate wildly, and random open and closes on shorter candlesticks may simply appear as the lows and highs of larger candlesticks, but not indicative of the overall trend.

As for calculating confirmation in relation to chart patterns, some candlestick formations can help confirm it further, for example, three consecutive green candlesticks, but of course, it isn't always the case. When candlesticks begin to open and close far outside of the trend line you're looking at, that can usually be seen as confirmation, at least to my knowledge.

3. High volume is definitely a big factor in determining a breakout, which is why I'm uncertain with that small initial push upwards. High volume would allow us to be much more certain that TRON/TRX will explode, but since we don't see that yet, we'll have to wait and watch for it to either arrive, or for a large selloff to occur if it fails.

I tried to answer your questions to the best of my ability, so I might be a little wrong about a few things. And yes, I'll definitely publish the chart now!
Reply
What is status right now?
Reply
BigJalapeno CryptoBlake
@CryptoBlake, I'd buy, possible 50% return by Monday
Reply
@Luiserebii
So, where is TRX going now? What do you recommend is the right strategy for now? HODL?
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