But first, here are my assumptions and the important dates you should know:
1. TRON has dated the launch of their main net for May 31st (first vertical line), this date is known for a long time and last time when they launched their test net, there was a huge run up a few days before, followed by a massive dump on the same day. It may the same for the main net launch and the run up could be already baked in the price (of the recent high).
2. Since there is the needed token swap just 3 weeks after the main net launch (second vertical line), the dumping on the date of the main net launch could be not as bad as the first time.
3. TRON has a great community, is already on a lot of exchanges and has a lot of all the time. So I am expecting a high before and after the deadlines.
4. As far as I can see TRON fans are strong hodlers and got big hopes dreams.
5. Bitcoin doesn't do any crazy stuff.
Now what I am expecting:
A little correction back to the ascending triangle with 900 Satoshis as top line. Maybe we form a nice inverse head and shoulders here. Once we break above 900 Sats my next target is the completion of the huge cup and handle at around 1060 Sats . If we break this area with before May 31st, I am looking for an exponential run up to the higher target (2) of round about 1300 Satoshis. But just in case we have a very sentiment in the whole market.
The more likely scenario for me is a breakout of the cup and handle pattern right before main net launch. Maybe stopped at a big even at around 1200-1250 Sats (T1B), followed by the expected dump on May 30th -June 1st. For example back down to the breakout point and then a bounce off the cup and handle in June. The second target is at the .382 fib level.
My very long term target for the cup and handle would be at around 1700 Sats , that's the distance between breakout and the bottom of the cup. This line also fits perfectly to the body of the ATH-candle. Makes sense for me. But I think we need a great sentiment for this scenario to occur. Maybe at the end of the year if Bitcoin starts running again. With all that , TRX will offer enough chances to earn some money in this case.
Don't fomo and set your Stop-Losses like a pro.
Buy zone: 825-850
Sell at T1: ~25-30% profit (40% for T1B)
Sell at T2: ~50-60% profit
Sell at T3: ~100% profit
So please let me know what you guys think about this idea?
TRON Main net Launch on May 31st: https://twitter.com/justinsuntron/status...
TRX Tokenswap on june 25th: https://twitter.com/Tronfoundation/statu...
None of this is financial advice, of cause. I am just drawing fancy looking lines on my screen.