Back on March 31 of this year I posted this charts below. Unfortunately I had tried to demonstrate the imamate collapse of the TRY and posted the chart of TRYUSD instead of posting the correct ticker USDTRY. As such I marked long TRYUSD instead of Long USDTRY.
None the less the comments do not signal bullish for the TRY. it has lost 40% of its value in just days and 60% f its value in 3 years.
Since then the TRY has indeed collapsed and heading towards hyperinflation. As you can see in the comment Warren Mosler (father of MMT) got it completely wrong that lower rates are deflationary and will strengthen the Lira. Just like the entire Modern Monetary Theory is wrong! The cart does not pull the horse.
As I have said a million times before, Gov't can only print worthless digits, Gov't cannot print productivity. No gov't can print borrow and import to economic prosperity. 148 nations since 1960 alone have proven this fact time and time again. It is a "Deficit MYTH" to believe Gov't can. Most recently we have watched currency collapses in Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Turkey where millions of families will suffer greatly as a result of bad MMT beliefs that Gov't can just print a currency at will and we can all have free this an that. it is very unfortunate that millions of people must suffer in order to prove a bad monetary, economic theory wrong!
Warren Mosler Mike Norman Natasha Kelton and the #MMT crowd are the absolute wrong people to listen to when it comes to FX trading and economics. Anyone who has been bamboozled into believing MMT and bought the TRY has been absolutely destroyed several accounts over. When theory meets reality!
Good view! Erdogan is killing these shorts) Where (or when) will it stop your thoughts?
RealMacro
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@Forexezy_com, TY for your comment. it depends when Erdagon cries, uncle. There is 15% left for him to lower rates (Good God!) If he proceeds with his plan and they don't kill his ass first then Hyperinflation is the target. Shorter-term 15 16 is a reasonable assumption.
heckles
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I'm kicking myself is the ass(ets) for not paying closer attention to this considering your prior analysis from over a year ago.
RealMacro
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@heckles, Thank you my friend! While it is a tragedy that 85 million people will suffer as a result of bad economics. It is a great learning lesson in FOREX trading for newcomers and veterans alike bc it reinforces real-world macroeconomics and the monetary system as it actually is not what self-proclaimed experts say it ought to be.
walidmvp
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Just saw this idea you posted a while back. It’s absolutely jaw-dropping, and at the same time hilarious, to see Mosler make such incredibly incorrect posts to the detriment of millions. The question is: how do we avoid this from happening to us given the rabbit hole we’ve managed to get ourselves into? Btw, blown away by your knowledge of economics. Gotta be honest, I have a BS in Economics myself, but I never truly appreciated it until now, seeing how you use it in your analysis. Great job man!
Where (or when) will it stop your thoughts?