TSLA - Big Banks selling Tesla into Battery Day - Down Big FRI
Expect TSLA to have a near carbon copy of what happened today before regaining some of it's strength just before we head into the weekend (assuming the NASDAQ is stable).
I'm worried this morning's premarket action was just a preview of things to come. Stocks bounced at the open before showing increasing weakness throughout the day repeatedly challenging some key levels.
To make matters worse, TSLA formed almost a perfect bearish pennant during today's trading session. The TICK action on the stock today was filled with big moves down and slow rebounds - typically indicating that the big players are starting to move against the stock while retail investors are left holding the bag.
Tesla is a strong stock, and one I like to be on the bull side of under most circumstances, but the weakness it showed today - especially in the afternoon - leads me to believe a lower open is all but certain Friday morning. This will likely get a small bump as PUT positions clear, leading to a short lived rally similar to what we saw today. I expect Tesla to open in the $400-414 range, moving quickly back to $420, and then ultimately grinding down until the final hour of trading. Going into the weekend, I think TSLA will rebound from a LOTD in the $383-389 range and recover to low $400s. That momentum will likely include a gap up into Monday's trading session and the lead up to battery day; however, the shareholder meeting is scheduled the same day as battery day. I expect we're going to get some very NEGATIVE news likely related to COVID, the factory shutdowns, and increasing competition. The cybertruck looks like it could be in serious trouble with Ford debuting its all electric F-150 in 2022 - within 6 months of the tsla cybertruck launch (and it has the benefit of not looking like a Total Recall inspired sardine can).
The Play: Short TSLA - if the NASDAQ is broadly down, short at open. If the NASDAQ is up or sideways premarket, wait for the bounce to $420, then short. Drop the shorts < $390 and don't hold the shorts over the weekend.
I'm worried this morning's premarket action was just a preview of things to come. Stocks bounced at the open before showing increasing weakness throughout the day repeatedly challenging some key levels.
To make matters worse, TSLA formed almost a perfect bearish pennant during today's trading session. The TICK action on the stock today was filled with big moves down and slow rebounds - typically indicating that the big players are starting to move against the stock while retail investors are left holding the bag.
Tesla is a strong stock, and one I like to be on the bull side of under most circumstances, but the weakness it showed today - especially in the afternoon - leads me to believe a lower open is all but certain Friday morning. This will likely get a small bump as PUT positions clear, leading to a short lived rally similar to what we saw today. I expect Tesla to open in the $400-414 range, moving quickly back to $420, and then ultimately grinding down until the final hour of trading. Going into the weekend, I think TSLA will rebound from a LOTD in the $383-389 range and recover to low $400s. That momentum will likely include a gap up into Monday's trading session and the lead up to battery day; however, the shareholder meeting is scheduled the same day as battery day. I expect we're going to get some very NEGATIVE news likely related to COVID, the factory shutdowns, and increasing competition. The cybertruck looks like it could be in serious trouble with Ford debuting its all electric F-150 in 2022 - within 6 months of the tsla cybertruck launch (and it has the benefit of not looking like a Total Recall inspired sardine can).
The Play: Short TSLA - if the NASDAQ is broadly down, short at open. If the NASDAQ is up or sideways premarket, wait for the bounce to $420, then short. Drop the shorts < $390 and don't hold the shorts over the weekend.