Tesla Swing Trade

TSLA

Tesla has been one of the weakest major names in the market this cycle and that underperformance is exactly what makes it interesting here. After breaking out of its late-2024 triangle, TSLA has spent recent months carving out a rising wedge, a pattern textbooks label bearish. The timing lines up: price has just tested resistance on the major trend, while the corresponding support on that trend has yet to be tested.

Given how volatile and unpredictable conditions remain, we're favoring short-term setups over long-term conviction trades right now, it's simply easier to make well-informed calls on a shorter time horizon.

The Setup

Tesla recently bounced off wedge support at a confluence with the 200-day EMA and has been climbing back toward wedge resistance ever since.

Our trigger: a weekly close that breaks and holds above the wedge's dashed downward-sloping resistance line. If that happens, we're in, targeting the top of the wedge.

Levels to Watch
Resistance 1 - already broken.



Resistance 2 - the resistance marked by a downward sloping white dashed line
Resistance 3 - the horizontal resistance from the prior high (tested twice), sitting just below wedge resistance.

A rising wedge doesn't play out bearishly every time. If Tesla breaks wedge resistance and keeps going, we won't be closing the trade at the wedge top, we'll ride it up to the top of the broader channel instead.

Stay tuned for updates.