Topping reversal candle on the 4 hr. I see Bullish and Bearish scenarios- * Yes Tesla can go to $180 first, it has to happen before Wednesday
Bearish- pullback and double top , Rising Wedge or complete breakdown from here.
Bullish-continuation on new support trend-line past $200… to confirm V bottom recovery (Tsla is one of few stocks that will be green while Markets go red)
*** everything dependent on Markets to confirm Bull cycle or to fade the rally and begin the Final leg Down of Correction.
My Thesis,( until price action delivers a different scenario)- I’m leaning Bearish, but with a possibility of higher high along with Bearish Divergence confirmation. Just to accumulate more retail liquidity before February selloff -Smart Money began buying in December- taking profits in February lines up with lower Tax on gains and portfolio rotation
I believe economic data or FOMC will maintain hawkishness and rug-pull the markets next Wednesday.
Macro Data: - NYSE advance decline is supporting weakness in markets -Retail & Smart money are completely divergent -Put/Call ratio beginning to favor Bears -Vix bullish divergence setup forming -DXY, 10yr & 2yr bond yields are all rising with markets -HYG Bonds are falling while markets advance -Retail influx & euphoria is at highest level since 2021 & 2022 August high (LARGE SELLOFF) - Feb & March seasonally are sell-off & Volatility spikes until April ***Everything is pointing to a Large pullback or “The Final” leg of Bearish Correction
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Error** I mean: Yes, TSLA can go to 182 , close above $184 will be a strong case for bullish scenario
Trade closed: target reached
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$183 zone accomplished - I am Taking Profits off the table and leaving 1/3 position for gap up rally tomorrow *** Bearish Divergence on Daily & 4 hr
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for Bulls: *Let's hope TSLA does not close below $180.5 today... this could set-up a "double top pattern*
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Even with Bearish Divergence we could see tesla rally to $190 (measured Break-out move) or even to $198 before big pullback
I agree with you, but I believe before FOMC, it will hit 200$ as a psychological resistance, and to fill the gap, it needs just 5-6 percent. Then a pullback to 100-120 area to form a cup and handle. It’s one of the easiest money for the rest of the year.
@shkspr, there is a strong case for that scenario , especially with no economic data on Monday. We will have to see if the topping tail on 4hr is confirmed with the following candle, … I appreciate your opinion
shkspr
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@Black_Sheep1, YW, your posts are knowledgably and you nailed it many times. keep your great work, it would be nice if we have your opinion about other tickers. GL
Black_Sheep1
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@shkspr, let me know what you are looking at & I will try to help. Actually, I wouldn’t mind being part of core group of traders that can work together on daily & weekly setups to help improve trades. Currently I am noticing this as a broad market analysis: HYG/SPX Divergence
shkspr
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@Black_Sheep1, I'll check it today after market close, thanks for sharing
Then a pullback to 100-120 area to form a cup and handle.
It’s one of the easiest money for the rest of the year.