Today Tesla decided that it was going to get confusing on us. One good thing, tomorrow morning should clear it right up for us, lol. Rather my primary or ALT count comes true, the next move will be strong one way or the other. The primary chart you see above you has much going on so let me decode it for you.
1. Black Lines--Larger Picture/Count 2. Red Lines--assumed wave 1-2 of 5 of v 3. Turquoise Lines/Yellow Box--ALT count/target
Now, for the meat and potatoes, my black labeling shows we have finished our wave 2 and now started to carve out a micro (i)-(ii) for wave 3. This would signify that we are about to start wave (iii) of 3 and it will be a powerful move up. If you are one of my followers, you know that I was stopped out @ $183 today. I had this stop tight because I saw it made a new high and should have been off to much higher. I made a whopping $0.73 cents from the trade 😂 but at least I didn't lose money. Point being, Why the chop? Is it because we are approaching the end of this count? Is it because this retrace finished early and we are already in wave ((C))? Is it because of the debt limit debate? Is it because the global economy is shrinking? Is it because Elon decided to smoke another joint on a broadcasted feed? I have no idea. What i do know, is there are TWO possibilities. Which brings me to my next part.
THE ALT
As stated before, the turquoise markings and yellow box on the chart above are my ALT count. These suggest we finished this retrace up earlier than expected at the 1.618 fib line. Structurally, this is very possible. As i stated, fib wise that would mean we finished a little prematurely on the micro level, but structure is the most important thing. We did breach the 1.0 of our (A)-(B) and almost made it to the 1.236 on the macro level which is the minimum needed technically. This count would also explain the chop that caught me off guard earlier. One more thing that has me taking a second look at this downside, is the difficulty in counting the black 1. Every time i try to put a 5-wave count on it I can't, it looks as if it could be corrective vs. impulsive. If the turquoise count comes true, then tomorrow should have a powerful move down to confirm my ALT VS. primary.
At this juncture, I think my primary count still holds the edge over my ALT count. I have also learned to trust my count until invalidated or made improbable. Like i said earlier, I am flat of any Tesla at this point. If you have some make sure to put a stop limit on it. I would try to make it to where it can activate pre-market too. Not saying you will need it, but one way or the other this thing will move quickly, and you may not have time to react if it doesn't move in your favor. It might not even come till midday-afternoon, but with stops at least you are protected to whatever degree your risk management dictates.
Looking at the MACD you can see the black line I have drawn. This shows it doesn't have much more room to move up before pressure is severely to the downside. Also, it shows if the primary count comes true, we will make OMH on Neg. divergence. Not required, but y'all know how I like my OMH's on Neg. div. LMAO
I want to end this post by reminding everyone of the bigger picture. Some people may be bullish on Tesla, but I am 100% not one of them...at this time. According to my analysis, which y'all can read my work and decide if it's trustworthy or not, we are about to embark on wave ((C)) of ((2)). This next major move will be strong and most likely impulsive to the downside. Once we finish carving out our ((B)) wave, I can put slightly more accurate targets on the chart, but until then all I have is between $120-$135. Then, O MAN O MAN O MAN, I will be one of THE MOST BULLISH Tesla investor's out there!!!! We will be in Primary wave (3)...and y'all know about 3's by now.
Below is my chart zoomed out showing my ((C)) target and the bigger picture.
Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
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Strong open the the upside...I guess that means y'all know which count prevailed.
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I expect Wave 4 to be quick and short due to wave 2 being deep and long. So far following my primary counts path. As I said, learn to trust your counts. Your first thought, often times, is the most accurate.
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Quick and small retrace (wave 4) coming up very soon. Then OMH for the top. MACD is starting to look cooked too. This retrace should be the tide that starts to turn MACD downwards
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Looking at the 15minute tineframe, the Wave 4 retrace has at minimum started. Check out the MACD....
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Due to the high MACD made today, it appears we are subdividing again. This will change the timing of our bottom and the route we take to get there. I will elaborate more when I make another post, most likely on Memorial Day. As I hinted, THIS DOES NOT CHANGE OUR BOTTOM OF $120-$135. It only delays it, and basically gives the same opportunity we just had yet again allowing us to bolster our gains in this wave even more.
I think I figured out how to ignore certain people! Why should toxic comments be on this board?
ashyboy123
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I feel like a move down to 175 would make sense, then back up to 200 before we start heading for ((C)). I'm not sure we finished retracing but could be wrong. We could be inside of a double three pattern which will see us head up after 8.30am? Shall see I guess :) thanks for your posts as usual!
TSuth
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@ashyboy123 The problem with it going that low and then back up again is it would invalidate the count
sriaishu
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@TSuth, Another great post, and update on TSLA. My late mentor always used to say whenever you take a trading position define your time frame and stick to your rules. Have an alternative structure in mind and give time to create a contra position. An analogy of him still rings in my ears. When you cross the road look at both sides and then cross. What a statement. If the trade doesn't shape up the way we designed, cut it with Stops. Nobody can predict price movement but the directional prediction is possible if one does follow a study. Even if you are 60% successful it is a great achievement and not the least limiting the 40% of the unfavorable position will make things stress-free.
In fact, precisely your today's posts remind me of him again. Still hold 50 Shares at 183.05. if today's opening gives any indication I might retain it. Let prices and your levels guide me better. My bet this time is very minuscule so it doesn't bother me. Thanks again
PS: I still feel, your original thesis will be right not because I am long but seeing some positive divergence which is not 100% dependable but guides me and gives me more hope.
TSuth
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@sriaishu I am honored to be compared to your mentor! I can only hope I help give confidence and reduce anxiety for others. Thanks for the comment! God bless you and your family!
sriaishu
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@TSuth, You deserve more. In my early stages when I started to go by fundamentals, I never made money. All I could do it I will enter the stock at the peak kept holding and converted a trading position into an investment position. Greater fool theory. I was the greatest fool when I picked up those well-researched stock of my choice. Something similar now buying TSLA at 200 now only to see the price retrace lower.
Wave Study guides much ahead on any change in fundamentals. We may not know the reason for the rise and fall but the structure will guide you. I will have a broad idea about the company but give more value to prices.
The same thought process you have as my late mentor, if I have understood you well by reading your past posts. Not sure if I am right.
You are the gem in my opinion and a gift given to me and many followers of yours. Stay focussed on your posts and have a resolve with entry exit with stops, we can all laugh all the way to the bank. Good Luck with everything in your endeavor.
TSuth
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@sriaishu I couldn't have said it better myself! Structure is everything! Thanks again Sriaishu, I appreciate you!
sriaishu
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@TSuth, Look at your initial thesis. Still works. Making every one of your followers confident. There might be a time in the future, when an alternative count may be initiated. That is why I value your posts.
TSuth
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@sriaishu, Thats the beauty of EWT, I don't usually follow any news cycles about stocks. If anything, this theory tells me WHEN news will break. Rather it be good or bad, if a big move is coming up, you know some big news is about to come out "causing" price to react.
sriaishu
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@TSuth, The best part I want to highlight here, without invalidation it gave another opportunity yesterday to enter at 180 levels too, or even after confirmation even at 183 it was a good entry. Your posts are really educational.
I do not have a TV at home and no business papers for the past 10 years. Prices pop up/come down and then comes the fundamental report. Sell low and buy high has happened to me on many occasions. Not any more. Thanks again.