Tesla probably finished this Friday a leading diagonal. Because it made a new low, one has to consider a new impuls down has just started. Personally expecting bounce in April to 200-210 levels with consecutive sharp reversal until June 2015. Wave 4 could unfold during July with some 38.2% retracement of wave (3). A final low of this 1 year corrective move could occur in October 2015 as a traditionally weakest month for stock market.
My strategy: 1. Will sell Tesla around 200 with stop 218. I will do it ONLY, if we have end of April and SPX 500 makes new highs (possible around 2140-2170). 2. Will close my shorts around 137.5 (expecting 161.8% extension of a leading diagonal move). 3. Will reshort once wave (4) retraces 38.2% of wave (3). 4. Will close my 2nd short trade by 120 and will go long with stop by 110. 5. Will close my first long position on Tesla by 560-570 (expecting at least 161.8% extension of ((1))).
INVALIDATION: Move in Tesla above 225.
10th April 2015: entry short Tesla at 211.16, stop 215
I do not like the current (X) is in 5 wave... on the other side we made new low! Difficult to say what is going on. LD is just one possibility. Expanded flat seems unlikely, because it should be 3-3-5. A tringle as wave (X) - surely possible as well.
Fundamentals: I would not be surprised if the sales of tesla would not be so great because of recent low gasoline prices...
Further do not forget there is still this unfilled gap around 130.
As I wrote, before I short Tesla, I will look where is the stock market general and if we are towards the end of may 2015
VirtueTrader
⋅
Good analysis. I think a lot of people are thinking the same thing. However, time is running out. The support between 177 and 183 is very strong and this has to break quickly because Tesla's Q1 results will be out around May 11, which are likely to be good, and the Model X will probably be unveiled in May, and put in to production in July/August. These two factors make it very difficult to see the price falling much further in the timescale you envisage. Of course, the Q1 results could be bad and that could move the price even lower but I just can't see it happening. There were 1,400 undelivered cars from the last quarter, the numbers coming from Europe are very good, the numbers coming from China are nowhere near as bad as first thought, and there seems to be lots of reports of huge deliveries in the US. The guidance numbers were already low so I wouldn't be surprised to see a beat in deliveries of around 10 - 20%.
I think the current support level will hold, with a move up to 200, where a descending triangle pattern will complete in April. There will be a move up in the week or two before Q1 results, where the upper barrier of the triangle will be broken on rumours of good delivery numbers. Good Q1 results will be released and the price will move higher to around 225 to 230. The Model X will be unveiled a month or so later and the price will move to new highs very quickly.
VirtueTrader
⋅
Sorry, I meant, the Model X will probably be unveiled in June, not May.
Fundamentals: I would not be surprised if the sales of tesla would not be so great because of recent low gasoline prices...
Further do not forget there is still this unfilled gap around 130.
As I wrote, before I short Tesla, I will look where is the stock market general and if we are towards the end of may 2015